Victoria Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 19th February)

Best Days: Most days this week should have workable options east of Melbourne, best late Thurs/Fri with a small, inconsistent new groundswell. 

Recap: Saturday’s new groundswell delivered excellent 4-6ft surf in Torquay, with larger waves early of Melbourne. Size eased into Sunday and conditions were clean with early offshore winds tending variable into the afternoon. Freshening onshore winds overnight have persisted through into this morning, deteriorating surf conditions as a new groundswell moved into the region.

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This week (Feb 20 - 23)

Today’s notes will be brief as Craig’s on leave.

Today’s underlying groundswell - if you’re able to see it at all beneath the windswell noise - will ease through Tuesday. 

It’s a moot point anyway, as we’ll be under a gusty E/SE breeze that’ll generate punchy wind waves for the Surf Coast. There’s not many options under these breezey conditions however some exposed Surf Coast spots will pick up 3ft+ sets at times on Tuesday, generated by a broader easterly fetch through Bass Strait. Keep in mind that the curve and alignment of the coast will favour increasing size with increasing proximity south-west from Torquay.  

These winds will create clean, if somewhat blustery conditions for southern ends of the open beaches east of Melbourne. Expect small, easing surf from today.

Tuesday’s easterly fetch will weaken through Wednesday, and due to the fetch’s closeness to the coast, we’ll see a rapid translation in (easing size) at the coast. Early morning may see some 2-3ft sets on the Surf Coast but expect smaller surf into the afternoon.

Winds may become variable for a period early morning but it’ll generally remain onshore. We’ll see a slightly more E/NE direction east of Melbourne which should produce great conditions across the open beaches though there won’t be a lot of surf around, as the groundswell will have eased right back by then.

Tiny surf is then expected early Thursday, with mainly E’ly quadrant winds, perhaps more north of east early, trending south-east after lunch with the sea breeze. A small, long range groundswell is expected into the afternoon and through Friday, generated by a reasonable low well SW of WA over the weekend, but there won’t be enough size for the Surf Coast to be worthwhile. 

We should however see some great beachies east of Melbourne with the offshore breeze. In fact, the afternoon flow may straighten up from the north on Friday as a front approaches from the west. Sets will be inconsistent here, perhaps 3-4ft from later Thursday through early Friday, before easing throughout the day. Expect very long waits of tiny conditions between the sets. 

This week (Feb 24 - 25)

We’ve got a tricky forecast ahead this weekend, mainly around the winds. 

A new long period groundswell is expected to reach the mainland later Friday, building through Saturday ahead of a peak Sunday. At this stage the enormous travel distance looks like maintaining only small waves in Torquay (long waits for 2ft+ sets) but of concern to the open beaches east of Melbourne is a possible onshore change. 

The models are spoilt on how this will evolve - the European solution has a typical frontal pattern whilst the US solution has a cut-off low, resulting in more complex conditions locally - but either way we won’t have confidence on this for a few days. For now, it's not working booking in any road time.

Next week (Feb 26 onwards)

Nothing of any major interest showing up at this stage, just a seasonal progression of average fronts through the Southern Ocean.