Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 25th December)

Best Days: Protected spots east of Melbourne mid-late morning tomorrow, swell magnets Wednesday, Surf Coast Saturday and Sunday mornings

Recap

Merry Christmas from the Swellnet team! Saturday continued to provide out of season waves to the Surf Coast with clean conditions and a good sized swell while yesterday and today have been poor with onshore winds and an end to the good run of surf.

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This week and weekend (Dec 26 – 31)

There's plenty of swell hanging in across both coasts today, though hard to decipher under the onshore winds.

This mid-period energy was the last of the swell pulses seen since Thursday last week and we'll see wave heights dropping steadily over the coming days as winds start to improve.

A dawn E/SE breeze is due to swing more E-E/NE across the beaches to the east of Melbourne tomorrow morning, with easing sets from 3-5ft. The Surf Coast will remain poor with dropping waves from 2ft to occasionally 3ft at magnets.

Wednesday is still looking the cleanest with a fresh N/NE offshore but the Surf Coast will be tiny, and the Mornington Peninsula small and fading from 2-3ft.

Thursday is a lay day with no new swell though conditions will remain clean with a N'ly breeze, while from Friday we'll start to see some W/SW swell building across the state.

Firstly, long period energy showing on the charts from later Wednesday won't have any size attached to it, with it being generated south of South Africa last week.

We'll see a very slight uptick in size Friday from an initial weak front that's currently south-west of WA, but don't expect anything over 1-1.5ft on the Surf Coast and 3ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula. A SW change will create poor conditions in any case.

Some slightly better W/SW swell is due on the weekend, generated by a slightly stronger and closer mid-latitude front developing south-west of WA over the coming days.

Only mid-period energy is due, with 2ft+ sets due on the Surf Coast Saturday and 3-5ft waves to the east with a W/NW tending W/SW breeze.

A secondary stronger front may produce some better swell for Sunday/Monday, but more on this next update.