Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 24th July)

Best Days: Surf Coast Tuesday, east of Melbourne Thursday, Surf Coast Sunday onwards

Recap

Clean conditions all weekend across the Surf Coast but only small to tiny swells, best left to beginners. To the east the surf was a bit bigger but conditions poor.

Today a new S/SW groundswell has provided some fun small 2ft waves on the Surf Coast, while the Mornington Peninsula remained less than ideal.

This week (Jul 25 - 28)

Tomorrow's looking really fun on the Surf Coast with a good new S/SW groundswell and offshore winds.

The polar front linked to this swell is looking a bit stronger than forecast Friday, with it currently projecting a fetch of SW gales through our swell window while passing under Tasmania.

The swell should peak tomorrow morning to 3ft+ at swell magnets on the Surf Coast and the 5ft range on the Mornington Peninsula with fresh N/NW tending NW winds.

Expect a drop in size through the day, smaller Wednesday. During Wednesday we''ll see a strong mid-latitude low moving in from the west, directing a poor fetch of strong W/NW winds through our swell window.

This system will move through Bass Strait through Wednesday kicking up some W'ly swell for both coasts into the afternoon. The Surf Coast is likely to hand around 2ft or so all day, with building surf to 4-5ft on the Mornington Peninsula. Unfortunately fresh to strong W/NW tending W/SW winds will only favour the Surf Coast.

Thursday looks much better east of Melbourne with easing sets from 3-4ft with a N'ly tending N/NE breeze. The Surf Coast is due to be small to tiny and fading from 1-2ft max.

Into the end of the week and start of the weekend, conditions will become average for surfing again with small levels of W'ly swell with winds from the NW. This will create clean conditions on the Surf Coast but with no size, while the Mornington Peninsula would be fun if not for the local winds.

This weekend onwards (Jul 29 onwards)

We'll finally see one of the mid-latitude systems impacting Western Australia deepening significantly south of WA and through the Bight later this week, with a broad fetch of severe-gales with embedded storm-force winds due to be projected through our swell window towards us.

A large W/SW groundswell should be generated for Sunday, coming in at this stage in the 4-6ft range on the Surf Coast and 8ft on the Mornington Peninsula with W/NW winds.

This looks to be followed by by plenty more moderate sized W/SW swell into early next week as a strong node of the Long Wave Trough stalls over WA, but more on this Wednesday.