Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 21st June)

Best Days: Both regions tomorrow, Surf Coast Friday, both regions experienced surfers Saturday, Surf Coast Sunday, Surf Coast Monday and Tuesday

Recap

Another day of pumping surf across the Surf Coast with a reinforcing W/SW swell keeping 3-4ft sets hitting the reefs along with all day offshores. Selected locations east of Melbourne also provided plenty of good waves for experienced surfers.
This morning a new SW swell was filling in and conditions were clean on the Surf Coast but an onshore change isn't far off.

This week and weekend (June 22 – 25)

Today's moderate sized SW swell was generated by a strong polar front projecting up towards us while strengthening yesterday, and we should see the swell peak this afternoon, easing just a touch tomorrow but steading with a reinforcing SW pulse.

The Surf Coast should hold around the 4ft range most of the day on the sets across magnets, with 6ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula. Conditions will be good across most regions with light local offshore winds during the morning, tending a little more NW into the afternoon on the Surf Coast.

Come Friday the swell will be a touch smaller with a mix of easing and building swells under a fresh NW tending W/NW breeze.

This brings us to the weekend's large and powerful swell event.

A node of the Long Wave Trough is currently strengthening across the Bight and will move slowly east over the coming days, continuing further towards New Zealand over the weekend.

This has already spawned a vigorous polar front south-southwest of WA, with a fetch of pre and post-frontal gales forecast to be generated in our south-western swell window. This will generate a moderate sized SW groundswell alone, but also create an active sea state for a much stronger and more significant storm to move over.

This secondary storm will form tomorrow, projecting a fetch of severe-gale to storm-force SW winds up right through our south-western swell window, clipping Bass Strait before moving off further east Friday.

With the front moving over the already active sea state we'll see quicker than normal wave growth, resulting in a large long-period SW groundswell arriving overnight Friday (possibly showing on dark Friday and peaking Saturday morning.

The Surf Coast is due to see large and dangerous surf in the 8ft range, only for experienced surfers, while the Mornington Peninsula looks to come in at 10-12ft.

Winds on Saturday are looking favourable but still may change a little with a light morning NW'ly due on the Surf Coast, possible tending N/NE into the afternoon with an approaching trough. We'll have to have one last look at this Friday.

Sunday looks excellent as the swell eases under offshore W/NW winds.

Longer term a secondary large S/SW groundswell is on the cards for Monday, produced by a third polar frontal system firing up on the tail of the amplified Long Wave Trough.

We're looking at surf in the 6ft range with W/NW to SW winds, but more on this Friday.