Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 19th June)

Best Days: Surf Coast every day, Mornington Peninsula Tuesday and Thursday morning, as well as protected breaks Saturday

Recap

Excellent Surf Coast waves Saturday with plenty of size hanging in due to a reinforcing W/SW groundswell. Into Sunday we saw a mix of three strong new swells filling in and winds remained favourable most of the day on the Surf Coast with a light offshore tending variable breeze.

Today the surf was pumping with clean easing surf from the 4-5ft range on the Surf Coast and 6ft+ on the Mornington Peninsula under a NW breeze.

This week (June 20 – 23)

The good times are set to continue for the Surf Coast with fun waves this week ahead of a proper large winter swell this weekend.

Tomorrow will again be great on the Surf Coast with a new W/SW groundswell produced by a good fetch of pre-frontal W/NW gales moving through our swell window yesterday and this morning.

The Surf Coast should see 3ft+ waves during the morning (4ft sets on the reefs and at 13th Beach) with 4-6ft surf on the Mornington Peninsula. Offshore NW winds will persist all day, favouring locations west of Melbourne, though periods of N/NW breezes are likely east of Melbourne.

Into Wednesday the Surf Coast will again be clean through the early-mid morning with a W/NW offshore ahead of a shallow SW change mid-late morning.

This change will be associated with a strong polar front projecting from below WA, up towards us while strengthening tomorrow.

A broad and elongated fetch of strong SW winds will generate a moderate sized SW groundswell for Wednesday afternoon and Thursday. The Surf Coast should build to 4ft on the sets with 6ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula, holding 3-4ft and 5-6ft respectively Thursday before easing a touch Friday.

Thursday morning will be clean across both regions with light local offshores from the N'th, tending more W/NW into the afternoon, while Friday should see fresh NW tending W/NW breezes.

As touched on above and late last week, a vigorous polar frontal progression will develop later this week, the first real one this winter.

This will be the result of a node of the Long Wave Trough strengthening over the south-east of the country later this week, feeding and steering a vigorous polar front right up and through our south-west swell window.

An initial strong polar front will generate a fetch of pre and post-frontal W/NW to W/SW gales, creating an active sea state for a secondary much stronger and broader front to move over. This secondary front will project a fetch of severe-gale to storm-force SW winds right up towards us and then across Tasmania, with a large powerful long-period SW groundswell resulting.

This swell may be seen later Friday but will peak Saturday in the 8ft range on the Surf Coast and 10-12ft on the Mornington Peninsula. Winds are this stage look to be W/NW through the morning, but we'll have another look at the expected size and winds on Wednesday, so check then for a more confident assessment on this swell.