Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 7th June)

Best Days: Both regions tomorrow morning, Surf Coast Saturday, both regions Sunday and Monday, Surf Coast Tuesday morning, both regions next Thursday

Recap

Poor conditions across all but a few selected locations yesterday with a strong onshore change and kick in local windswell on top of the existing groundswell.

Today winds have eased but remained onshore across the Surf Coast with easing 3-4ft sets, while the Mornington Peninsula was cleaner with a more variable breeze and 4-6ft sets.

Winds have since become more variable on the Surf Coast creating cleaner conditions and more inviting surf. We should see conditions remain fun into this afternoon though as winds remain variable all day, so check cams and coast for a paddle.

This week and weekend (June 8 – 11)

The surf will become smaller tomorrow and a light morning NW-N/NW breeze will favour the Surf Coast and selected locations east of Melbourne. Easing 2ft waves are due, with 3-4ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula. An onshore change is due into the afternoon, so try and get a wave in through the morning.

This change will be associated with the remnants of the strong storm linked to a powerful new W/SW groundswell due into Friday.

Mid-period W/SW energy will be seen Friday morning from the front passing under the country ahead of the larger less consistent long-period swell into the afternoon.

We should see 3ft sets on the Surf Coast through the morning and 4-5ft+ waves on the Mornington Peninsula, building to 4ft and 6ft to occasionally 8ft respectively across both regions later in the day.

Unfortunately winds look onshore from the S/SW in the wake of tomorrow's change creating average conditions across both coasts.

More variable winds Saturday should tend W/NW across the Surf Coast creating cleaner conditions as the swell eases from 4ft on the sets, with 6ft+ waves to the east.

Sunday looks best east of Melbourne with light local offshore breezes and a slow drop in size. Sets will still be solid on the beaches though and around 4-5ft, smaller Monday but clean again.

The easing trend will be slow through Sunday and Monday due to persistent W/NW fetches moving through our swell window under the country through the end of this week.

Into early next week a mix of very inconsistent long-range W/SW groundswell and small SW groundswell spreading off an unfavourable but strong pre-frontal NW fetch are due.

We're not looking at any major size with small 2ft+ waves on the Surf Coast Tuesday and 3-5ft sets to the east.

Longer term a very significant storm developing around the Heard Island region this weekend with a broad fetch of severe-gales and stronger storm-force core winds produced through our far swell window.

This will generate an inconsistent but powerful long-period W/SW groundswell, but a secondary strong front spawning off the original storm will generate an additional fetch of severe-gale W/SW winds through our western swell window Sunday evening and Monday while projecting closer to us.

Two good swells will result, arriving similar times, kicking later Wednesday and peaking through Thursday. Winds look great at this stage and form the north, but we'll review this Friday.