Victorian Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 31st May)

Best Days: Most days should have fun small+ waves in Torquay, becoming bigger Mon thru' Wed next week. Sunday has potential east of Melbourne, and then from next Wed onwards. 

Recap: Onshore winds created poor conditions for much of Tuesday but wave heights built through the day, which are now showing around 4ft in Torquay with an early window of W/NW winds against the synoptic SW flow. 

This week (Jun 1 - 2)

With the recent frontal passage clearing to the east, we’ll see winds ease from the SW and then swing slowly W/NW over the coming days.

As is often the case, the Surf Coast should see an early terrestrial-influenced W/NW flow on Thursday morning, against a regional SW airstream. This should allow for a period of cleaner conditions at dawn though there will still be a risk of a SW flow at times throughout the day, albeit weakening. Friday should see the W/NW breeze persist almost for the entire day.

East of Melbourne conditions are unlikely to improve to any great degree before the weekend. Lighter W/NW winds are likely Friday but by this time there won’t be enough size for those locations offering clean conditions.

Wave heights will ease through Thursday, down from early 3ft sets in Torquay to 2-3ft during the day. Expect considerably bigger waves east of Melbourne, but probably not enough for Western Port. 

Very late Thursday, the leading edge of a new W/SW swell is expected to reach the coast - it’s doubtful that we’ll see an appreciable increase before dark across central Victorian beaches but it is certainly possible across the West Coast.

This swell will show best through Friday. The westerly swell direction will limit size potential and consistency in Torquay, with occasional 2-3ft sets at times though there’ll be long breaks between waves. East of Melbourne we should see occasional 5-6ft+ bombs at exposed beaches on the Peninsula, with good waves around the Flinders area.  

This weekend (Jun 3 - 4)

Winds should remain light for much of the weekend under the influence of a broad, slow moving high pressure system. We’ll see direction mainly out of the W/NW but speeds should be under 10kts. 

Friday’s W/SW swell will ease slowly through Saturday. Early morning may see some inconsistent 2ft+ sets across the Surf Coast but it’ll become smaller into the afternoon. The open beaches east of Melbourne could pick up 4-6ft sets at dawn though it’ll likely be down to 3-5ft by late morning or early afternoon.

The first in a series of new long range W/SW swells are then expected to push through during Sunday. I’m expecting a peak from this impressive storm cycle through Monday and Tuesday but for now we’re looking at small, inconsistent surf around 1-2ft in Torquay at dawn, rebuilding to 2ft to maybe 2-3ft during the day. 

Once again, due to the westerly component in the swell direction we will see significantly larger surf east of Melbourne, around 4-5ft at open beaches early and likely 5-6ft+ by the end of the day. 

As such it’s hard to be confident for either coast this weekend. Torquay has the potential (and/or risk, whatever way you look at it) of being undersized and inconsistent, whilst east of Melbourne, the expected kick in size on Sunday may be somewhat of an in-between range - too big for the beaches but a little too small for reefs/protected locations.

Let’s take a closer look on Friday. 

Next week (Jun 5 onwards)

I really like the look of the upcoming frontal passage SW of WA over the coming days, except for one factor - its distance from the Victorian coast. This will maintain very inconsistent set waves, especially in Torquay where we’ll also lose some size owing to the W/SW swell direction.

That being said, we should see two or three days of fun surf in Torquay (Mon-Wed) with occasional 3ft+ sets. Had the storm track been further south this figure would be higher.

Winds should be NW through the start of the week but there is a suggestion of easterlies developing around Wednesday, which is a concern for the Surf Coast - but great news for the MP and Island. 

Further fronts developing behind this look like extended the run of good surf through next weekend and beyond. It’s a promising start for winter.