Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 17th May)

Best Days: Kee surfers east of Melbourne tomorrow morning and Friday morning, east of Melbourne Saturday

Recap

Better than expected conditions across the Surf Coast yesterday with a building swell and variable winds into the afternoon as sets hit the 3ft range. East of Melbourne conditions were great all day as well with fun waves right along the beaches.

Conditions were great again on the beaches across the state but with less size than yesterday afternoon.

This week and weekend (May 18 – 21)

The next couple of days aren't looking too good at all.

We'll see the swell continue to ease into tomorrow leaving tiny waves on the Surf Coast and fading 2-3ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula with a morning E/NE breeze.

Stronger E/SE winds into the afternoon will kick up some windswell on the Surf Coast, persisting Friday along with gusty E'ly winds.

These gusty E'ly winds will also spoil a new S/SW groundswell which has been upgraded a little in size from Monday.

The late forming polar front generating this swell is looking better with a good kick in size due Friday morning to 3ft on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft on the Mornington Peninsula. If you're desperate, protected spots across the southern end of the peninsula should be workable.

The weekend will see conditions improve as the mid-latitude low responsible for the easterly winds weakens as a front approaches from the west.

This should see morning NE winds swinging lighter N'ly through the day, but the surf will be small and easing. A mix of S/SW and SE swell are expected on the Surf Coast, easing from 2ft, with easing 3ft to possibly 4ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula.

Sunday will be much cleaner on the Surf Coast with a NW tending variable wind but there'll be no swell with tiny fading waves.

Next week onwards (May 22 onwards)

Another mid-latitude low moving in from the west later in the weekend and more so early next week and we won't see any swell generating winds moving into our swell window until later Monday and more so Tuesday.

This will be in the form of weak W/SW winds, and with this the Surf Coast won't see much in the way of size at all with mid-period energy filling in from later Tuesday through the rest of the week with winds from the north-west quadrant.

This system could become stronger, but check back here Friday for the latest on this.