Clean inconsistent swell building tomorrow
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 10th May)
Best Days: Surf Coast Thursday, both coasts Saturday morning, Tuesday and Wednesday
Recap
A continuation of poor surf yesterday with fresh onshore winds and a slow drop in swell. Conditions improved around Torquay into the afternoon as winds backed off just enough to produce cleaner surf.
This morning was much cleaner on all coasts with light offshore winds, 3-4ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula and small 2ft waves on the Surf Coast.
This week and weekend (May 11 - 14)
During this afternoon (more so late) we should see the long-period forerunners of our new W/SW groundswell showing on the Cape Sorell and Point Nepean wave buoys.
There'll be no size attached to this 19-20s swell, with the bulk of the groundswell which was generated in the southern Indian Ocean arriving in the 16-17s band tomorrow afternoon.
What we should see through tomorrow is a slow increase in size, but the swell will be very inconsistent with 10 minutes or so between sets.
Swell magnets on the Surf Coast should come in around 2-3ft tomorrow morning, building slowly towards 3-4ft tomorrow afternoon, with the Mornington Peninsula seeing 3-5ft sets, building to 5-6ft+.
Winds look as if they'll hold off for longer now with a morning NW breeze due to persist from the W/NW into the afternoon, with a surface trough bringing an onshore change late afternoon/evening.
The surface trough will be weak and onshore S'ly winds Friday morning may tend more variable through the day before increasing again into the afternoon.
We should see the W/SW groundswell starting to ease slightly, while into the afternoon some new mid-period SW swell is due.
This swell which should hold into Saturday morning, followed by a secondary similar pulse Sunday will be generated by a flurry of broad but not overly strong polar frontal activity.
Fetches of strong W/SW-W/NW winds during today through the end of the week should produce some fun SW swell, coming in at 2-3ft on the Surf Coast Saturday morning (4-5ft Mornington Peninsula) and Sunday afternoon.
Winds on Saturday will hopefully be variable ahead of afternoon sea breezes, while Sunday looks a little dicey as a weak trough to our south strengthens slightly, bringing S/SE winds. We'll confirm this Friday though, as any change to the strength or the positioning of the trough will affect this outlook.
Next week onwards (May 15 onwards)
A small mix of leftover SW and W/SW swell are due Monday with light winds, while we may see a fun new S/SW groundswell building through Tuesday with N/NE winds.
This would be generated by a stronger polar frontal progression through our southern swell window, but we'll have another look at this Friday.
Comments
The swell has just hit Cape du Couedic in South Australia.
Craig, any chance of a 3m+ swell before June at all? Seems like the LWT isn't exactly favourable at the moment?
Does that mean the change tomorrow is weak? I.e manageable onshores?
No, it's delayed, even better!
Craig,
I read your notes all the time and admire your surf forecasting skills.
Sadly I use your notes more to predict the crowds these days. Your posting about the forerunners on the buoys was pushing the envelope, but your posting of the SA buoy graph is crossing the line in my opinion. I don’t think there is a need to broadcast this info, and excuses about the converted are rubbish because it is slowly catching on.
It is getting to the point on the Surf Coast where there is a very strong correlation between your forecasts and numbers in the water. It seems half of Melbourne and Geelong turn up, and almost everyone local organises the day off when you call good conditions. Even if the forecast changes, it’s often busy because people have organised themselves around the call from days earlier.
I don’t begrudge people being in a position to organise themselves, and I know you’re trying to make a buck out of it, but I think you are entering the stage where you’re doing more harm than good now. I don’t think a few blokes making a living out of telling the (often uninformed) masses is really worth the reduction in the surfing experience through overcrowding. The fact that crowds are thickening everywhere doesn’t justify you adding to it. I reckon we could crowd-source more cash to keep you quiet, actually.
Surely there is a case for tempering egos and being more discreet. I think it’s time for you blokes to consider that seriously. Just like the line about the scientists who rushed in because they could, without pausing to wonder whether they should. I have no problem with the information being available, I just recoil at the thought of you promoting it.
Maybe you just need to work on your paddle fitness then crowds won't be a problem?
Hey tango, most of those people who are coming from Melbourne are generally kooks aren't they? It shouldn't really effect your wave count. That being said, I went down the 'long gravel road' on a week day the other week and i have never seen so many people there (been interstate for 5 years). But i surfed the bowl that day and there was only 10 people in the line up. So its not that bad if you are a decent surfer.
But the idea that someone doing a surf forecast is wrong? Come on man, you are barking up the wrong tree. The world is a changing, that's just a fact.
Read my words, flatfoot. I did;t say the forecast was wrong at all - I might not like it but I use it and did;t say it was wrong. I'm on about the promotion of it, the encouragement for people to set aside days off, all of which make it more crowded. Anyone who has;t see that correlation has;t been paying attention.
I just think you're barking up the wrong tree mate. Those people are going to surf one way or the other, forecast or no forecast. Sure, more show up on those days, but they are only going to be concentrated on friendly breaks like possos (maybe winki gets a peak) and most of them are kooks. It sucks, but I don't think its fair to blame these guys. They are just doing their job after all.
Hear your point Tango but it's a business after all. SN is not a salvation army selling $2 shirts and the content is King. Do you think there is a market then for premium exclusive forecasting Tango? I pay for Premium but should we pay more for more content....??
BTW its a model the major newspapers are trying to figure out too.
Really Mickfree?? It's okay because they're in business, just like prostitution, mining and development. Just because someone made it legal does not make it okay.
Forecasts are having a big impact on Vicco and it gets uglier every year.
You think prostitution, mining and development are immoral?????
Population, not forecasts, have a big impact on vicco, sydney, WA, Byron, GC Sunny coast, everywhere. You need to get used to it.
"Forecasts are having a big impact on Vicco and it gets uglier every year."
I call bollocks on that. I'd put it third behind the surfing population increasing and flexible working hours. If you live on the Surf Coast then you know how Torquay's population has exploded, and also that it's nothing compared to what's coming on the Bellarine.
Use forecasts to your advantage and stop whinging.
I do live in Torquay (half way to local status at almost 15 years), I know very well how the population has exploded since I cam from NSW in '02, and that there's more to come, kneepete. You'd be out on a limb arguing it's not getting more crowded every year, but I do agree that the local and regional surfing population is exploding. I think you're not seeing the wood for the trees if you think it's whinging or that the forecasting isn;t contributing to it, though.
I see that yesterday you could advertise gambling to kids before 830pm but today it's pretty well illegal via the federal budget announcements. Are you suggesting that just because it's a business there is no moral obligation to consider the bigger picture?
I wasn't pushing for the forecasts to be killed off, just for a bit more discretion. And maybe for a bit more respect for surfing commitment/heritage whereby you earn your stripes rather than get spoonfed.
Kneepete - you are fully tripping if you think that surf forecasting isn't having a major impact on numbers in the water in the surf coast region. Today being a case in point - minimal numbers in the water because the forecast was for average waves but there were fun waves about ... tomorrow will good winds and an increase in swell (as per the forecast) will make it the usual circus. Its the same scenario every time. But the opposite also can be an advantage - forecaster gets it wrong - and the people that can actually read a synoptic chart are onto it. Tango is spot on - forecasts are killing it.
Surf forecasting has an impact on the numbers in the water around here and I wish it would fuck right off but it won't unfortunately. Much bigger impact has been the exponential increase in population around the Torquay/southern Geelong region over the last 15 years or so. It's ironic to think that up until the mid to late 90's you couldn't give away a house in Jan Juc and now the same holiday shitters are going for 6 - 800k.
The upside is that even though crowds are increasing, the general standard in the water has dropped. Muppets everywhere when the waves are good and a lot of them are pretty submissive characters just happy to be out there. Easter was a case in point with pumping surf and still pretty easy to surf yourself stupid despite everywhere being near capacity. My wave count hasn't diminished over the years with the only concession being that I rarely bother with Winki/Bells anymore.
Surf forecasts pale into insignificance when you can check it with your own eyes every morning. When we get a good run of surf like last year the far away crew and those with regular work demands drop off and there's plenty to go around. If you're worried about Melbourne surfers you're probably one yourself or a bit of a kook.
Hope you all booked in your 'rostered day off' tomorrow. It's gunna be ALL TIME!!!
Worried might be a little too full-on, but I must confess to a degree of concern if they're paddling for the shoulder and end up right where I need to be doing a bottom turn to get around a section....
Just what would propose change Tango?
Just a bit more discretion and less hype would be my preferred option, Nick. We all know where the info sources are on the web, but I don;t think the masses need it all packaged up and presented to them on a plate.
Build a wall! Build a wall!
Welcome to 2017! Newsflash it's getting more crowded everywhere in the world. You can thank WSL for that.
- Tango you criticise the forecasts but you're on the site presumably to also gleem some information and make a decision on how the crowds will be. Therefore, this site is serving a purpose for you. I wouldn't bite the hand that feeds. Can't we all just get along?
You should read the words I wrote, bepop. I criticised the forecast for taking things too far, not for existing. I'm a realist, not a Luddite, but as Ghandi said - you are the change. So if the info keeps on pumping out to the masses in such detail it only serves to increase crowds.
The site does serve a purpose but make no mistake this hand doesn;t feed me. We can all get along fine if we don;t have egos and money selling us all out faster than need be. You sound like someone who either hasn't experienced uncrowded good surf or can;t read a weather map.
Hey Tango....you think its bad now mate...just wait till the 20,000 babies I see getting around Torquay in brand new prams being pushed by mums in head to toe lululemon start surfing.
Maybe we should ban sex in Torquay? That should help
As long as its banned in the carpark I'm OK with it. Sick of stepping in second hand frangers in the gutter.
Just think Tango, for every filthy franger in winki's carpark, that's one less frothing grom in the lineup in 15 years...
#tarpuptorquay
Haha, too true.
I'm just trying to ask the frothing groms who just happen to have oceanographic and meteorological skills to back off on the froth a smidgeon.
Now enough typing, its time to go surfing.
Impossible while Gary is in the hizzouse
This is the thing about blaming surf forecasting, even without any forecasts at all those people would still surf. Or do we think someone decides to spend the money on a board + wettie and the time it takes to even be able to stand up, let alone paddle out at a decent spot, becasue they read a forecast???
Forecasting may tell those people what days to surf, but they are going to surf one day or the other. So blaming these guys is kinda silly if you ask me.
Flatfoot, you;re not seeing the wood for the trees here.
Of course they'd still surf, no question. But would they be in a position to turn up on the good days, the start of a swell, etc? No, they'd need to develop surf-reading and forecasting nous in the very same way that you say they take time to learn to surf. My point is the whole thing used to be a package of skills and experience you earned, but now we have relative beginners able to position themselves for the best slots with no dues paid. Imagine them being able to paddle to the inside in 6ft surf and handle it as a comparison - same horse, different jockey.
I'm not blaming the actual notion of forecasting FFS - its here to stay, sadly - but we don;t need to have such enormous detail and promotion of it all, especially giving away different sources of information like grommets trying to prove something. It's a bit like the surf sites/mags publishing photos of out of the way places with enough info in the frame to google-earth them or twig onto different conditions making them work. It seems very few people value discretion anymore.
Yeah Tango fair play you only asked for it to be toned down but I'm just not sure if it can and if it should be done. Also by commenting on the forecasters notes you put it back into the prime spotlight on the top of the page.
But I am interested in what alternative ideas you have......eg pay per view??? Should the content be only available to premium subscription? If you are worried about the beginners and more average surfers maybe they are not the demographics that would not pay for this so the content anyway so you have it locked away to the serious SN user.
The amount of info from the community on the SN is outstanding and I have learned a shitload...which I can tell you has stopped me going on Vicco runs and pushing the green light on the swell the Wednesday after Easter.
Also I'm not sure SN should be your gripe. Was another forecasting site that was doing a live broadcast last yeah pumping up a swell that ended up being to West to be worthy. They took a lot of heat and I'd be surprised if the locals let them get away with it.
For the fact that Winki is a true world class known wave its relatively uncrowded compared to other world class right handers like Snapper, Rincon. Then you have the over 6 foot days where you can get your share. You guys are spoilt for uncrowded lineups, you have the Hoax coast, south of Bells, Western vic..its a smorgsboard of gold. Compare to here you got nothing on East Coast haha. We get a great swell the and there are thousands of surfers chasing every wave and every spot.
It's working the #noexposure undercurrent for certain spots in Vicco but I am interested in what you can propose as a concept for all the above as you can't stop the thirst for knowledge.
Irony noted, Mick.
I agree with you about thirst for knowledge, but again I'd draw a parallel with thirst for being able to surf well and/or be paddle-fit - I just wish that the fruits were there for those who have put in the time and earned it to a degree, rather than the short-cut provided by too much detail in the forecasts which have the potential to up-skill the average punter to an advanced state of knowledge without much sense of earning it.
As I said to Nick earlier, my preference is more discretion. The example which set me off was posting the SA buoy data which, in my opinion, is a step too far and pretty much telling everyone to "get ready, here it comes". It reduces the chance for those who have put in the time or who are lucky enough to catch those first few waves of a new swell without the hordes descending.
Pay per view? I reckon user-pays has merit in a non-financial sense....you pay with commitment to earning your stripes, rather than cough up coin. Having the rich have access to more info would be utterly depressing.
Perhaps you could hire Gary's massive frame to hold back the tide, Tango?
Gary G: Guns for hire
Crowds have been good on Victoria's
" Gold Coast " . Infact if everyone wasn't trying to hang with the in Crowd on the Surf Coast , there is plenty of room to go around down here between Port Albert and Loch Sport . Peaks for miles !