Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 8th May)

Best Days: Surf Coast Wednesday morning (possibly dawn east of Melbourne), Surf Coast Thursday ahead of the change, both coasts Saturday and Sunday mornings

Recap

Super clean conditions Saturday on the Surf Coast but only small and an inconsistent 2ft while everywhere else was bumpy and average.

Sunday wasn't anything special with no real morning offshore around Torquay and no major much size at dawn with the new W/SW groundswell filling in mid-late morning.

Today the surf was on the ease along with poor conditions under a fresh S/SW breeze.

This week (May 9 - 12)

Tomorrow will be another lay day with lingering onshore S'ly winds across both coasts (only moderate in strength) and plenty of swell. A new SW groundswell should fill in during the morning keeping 3ft sets hitting magnets on the Surf Coast, with 4-5ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula.

Wednesday will be smaller (easing 2ft Surf Coast and 3-4ft Mornington Peninsula) but a NW tending W/NW breeze will create great conditions. Dawn east of Melbourne may see more favourable variable breezes from the north.

Now, moving into Thursday and our strong but distant W/SW groundswell is on track, but the timing of an onshore wind change isn't great at all.

This groundswell was generated late last week and through the weekend with a fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W/SW winds developing west of Heard Island, projecting north-east towards WA through our western swell window.

The storm is now weakening west-southwest of WA and with this we'll see a very inconsistent W/SW groundswell travelling towards us, building through Thursday but not peaking until the afternoon.

Swell magnets on the Surf Coast should see infrequent 2ft to occasionally 3ft sets Thursday morning, building to 3-4ft into the afternoon, with building surf to 5-6ft+ on the Mornington Peninsula. There won't be much between sets and waits of 10 minutes or so.

The morning will be clean with a pre-frontal NW wind, giving into a S/SW change early afternoon.

Friday will see the inconsistent W/SW groundswell easing under lingering S/SE winds.

This weekend onwards (May 13 onwards)

Conditions should improve into Saturday with a light offshore northerly wind developing through the morning along with some new SW groundswell.

This groundswell should build Friday afternoon, peak overnight and ease Saturday, generated by a flurry of polar frontal activity south-west of us mid-late week.

The frontal systems won't be overly strong and as a result we can expect just fun amounts of swell Saturday to 3ft or so on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft+ on the Mornington Peninsula.

Smaller surf is expected Sunday and hopefully with variable winds, but more on this Wednesday.