Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 1st May)

Best Days: Surf Coast Tuesday and Wednesday mornings, both coasts Thursday and Friday mornings

Recap

Good fun waves on the Surf Coat Saturday morning with 2-3ft of swell and clean conditions, while east of Port Phillip Bay, conditions were average. A fresh SW change hit late morning creating poor conditions into the afternoon as the swell built.

Sunday was great with excellent conditions all day on the Surf Coast and easing 3-5ft surf, while the Mornington Peninsula was workable with improving NW tending N'ly winds into the afternoon.

This morning the surf was much cleaner on the Mornington Peninsula with an offshore N'ly wind and easing 3-5ft sets, with fading 2-3ft waves at magnets on the Surf Coast.

Winds will swing more NW during the afternoon and W/NW late, keeping the Surf Coast clean as the swell continues to fade.

This week (May 2 - 5)

The coming couple of days are looking much better for the Surf Coast now, with morning offshores and some good fun swell.

A cold front currently approaching from the west-southwest is generating a healthy fetch of strong to gale-force SW winds through our western and south-western swell windows, producing a moderate sized W/SW tending SW swell for tomorrow.

A secondary better aligned polar fetch of S/SW winds isn't as favourable, with the secondary S/SW swell for Wednesday now due to be smaller.

What we can expect is building mid-period surf from 3ft tomorrow morning on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft+ on the Mornington Peninsula, further to 4ft and 5-6ft+ respectively.

A peak in size is due overnight, with easing surf from the 4ft range on the Surf Coast Wednesday morning and 6ft east of Melbourne.

Conditions will be good in protected locations around the Surf Coast tomorrow morning with a W/NW offshore, giving into a SW change around midday. Wednesday then looks good again with a morning W/NW breeze around the Torquay region, tending SW from midday.

Thursday is the day to surf the beaches east of Melbourne with a light variable (tending locally offshore wind) and easing 2ft to occasionally 3ft of S/SW swell on the Surf Coast, 4ft on the Mornington Peninsula.

Friday will be great again with light local offshore N'ly winds and a small easing W/SW swell from 2ft and 3ft+ respectively.

This weekend onwards (May 6 onwards)

The weekend is quite dynamic. Firstly, a long-range W/SW groundswell mentioned on Friday is still on track for Sunday.

This swell will be generated by a vigorous polar frontal progression firing up south-west of WA in our far western swell window, projecting east with a little intensification through the Bight helping to increase the consistency and keep the swell size up as it heads towards us.

The W/SW groundswell is due to arrive Sunday building to a strong 3-5ft on the Surf Coast and 6-8ft on the Mornington Peninsula into the afternoon.

Unfortunately though we'll see the remnants of the progression deepening directly west of us Saturday afternoon and evening, moving across us slowly Sunday while directing gale to severe-gale SW-S/SW winds into the coast.

This will kick up a large stormy S/SW swell through the day but with gale-force onshore S/SW winds. The European model has the system being a little weaker and winds a little more west, so lets have another look at this system on Wednesday.