Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 10th March)

Best Days: Swell magnets Saturday and Monday mornings, Wednesday morning, Thursday east of Melbourne

Recap

Good clean waves yesterday morning, tiny in Torquay but 1-2ft at 13th Beach, while the Mornington Peninsula saw 3ft surf.

Today a new SW swell has kicked the surf a little to 2ft on the Surf Coast and 3-4ft on the Mornington Peninsula along with light onshore winds.

This weekend and next week (Mar 11 – 17)

The weekend will be good at exposed breaks across the state with easing surf from today, smaller Sunday.

A light variable wind will create clean conditions tomorrow morning, with easing 1-1.5ft sets on the Surf Coast and 2-3ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula.

Sunday will be smaller again, and a morning NE breeze will favour magnets.

A small increase in swell is due Monday, from a weak polar front, but the size off this will be lucky to top 1-1.5ft on the Surf Coast and 2-3ft on the Mornington Peninsula. Variable winds will again favour the beaches if you're keen for a surf.

Tuesday looks to be a lay day with a drop in swell and increasing E'ly winds, but our good SW groundswell for Wednesday is still on track.

The polar low linked to this swell is currently forming in the Heard Island region, with a fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W/NW-W winds due to move through our far south-western swell window this afternoon and tomorrow.

The system will weaken slowly under the country Saturday, leaving the long-period SW groundswell to spread out towards us for Wednesday.

The swell will likely be seen later Tuesday, with a peak Wednesday morning to 3ft across the Surf Coast (3-4ft at swell magnets) and 5-6ft+ on the Mornington Peninsula.

We're in luck regarding the local winds as well with a light offshore N'ly breeze due across both regions before sea breezes kick in.

Thursday should see all day offshore N/NE winds on the backside of the swell, creating pumping beachy waves.

Beyond this the weekend will be small, but more on this Monday. Have a great weekend!