Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 5th March)

Best Days: East of Melbourne Wednesday morning, Thursday morning, early Friday keen surfers both coasts

Recap

Solid amounts of swell left over from Friday afternoon's kick on Saturday morning, as E'ly winds favoured selected spots east of Melbourne. Sunday was average and onshore with smaller 3ft waves.

The Surf Coast was poor all weekend with easing 2-3ft sets Saturday morning, 1-2ft Sunday but with average winds.

This morning the surf was average again across all coasts with onshore 2-3ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula and 1-2ft waves on the Surf Coast.

This week and weekend (Mar 7 – 12)

The coming week isn't favourable for the Surf Coast at all. A deepening Tasman Low off the East Coast along with a strong high sitting to our south will direct unfavourable winds from the eastern quadrant right through until Sunday.

Tomorrow, fresh to strong E/SE winds will whip up a junky SE windswell across the Surf Coast, largest later in the day to an easy 3ft.

Winds should tend more E/NE on Wednesday morning across the Mornington Peninsula creating cleaner conditions and we'll have some fun inconsistent SW groundswell in the mix.

This swell which is expected to arrive later today and peak tomorrow, was and is still being generated by a frontal system in the Indian Ocean, tracking south-east towards the polar shelf.

The Surf Coast should see 2ft to nearly 3ft waves tomorrow, with inconsistent 4-5ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula, easing back Wednesday from 2ft and 3-4ft+ respectively mixed in with some small peaky windswell.

Thursday morning will be smaller again but favourable east of Melbourne with a light morning E/NE breeze.

A new pulse of SW groundswell is due later Thursday and into Friday morning, generated by another small intense polar low dipping south-east along the polar shelf.

Fun 2ft+ waves are due on the Surf Coast early Friday morning, with 3-4ft+ sets on the Mornington Peninsula with a more variable breeze before a S/SW change moves through mid-morning.

Into the weekend there's no significant swell due at all, and a conditions will remain poor with S/SE winds on Saturday, with S/SW breezes Sunday.

Longer term there's some better SW swell energy due into next week, but the main issue will be the local winds. Lets have another look at this Wednesday.