Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 22nd February)

Best Days: Selected spots east of Melbourne Sunday morning, Monday morning, swell magnets Tuesday and Wednesday mornings

Recap

A fun morning of waves across the Surf Coast with easing 2-3ft surf before sea breezes came in, while the Mornington Peninsula saw more size but bumpy conditions.

Today most locations were clean but the surf was tiny west of Melbourne, small to the east.

This week and weekend (Feb 23 - 26)

The weak front that was due to generate a small weak windswell tomorrow (nothing was expected for the Surf Coast) has been downgraded and even the Mornington Peninsula will fail to see any size, even into the afternoon.

The Surf Coast is expected to be flat with a morning offshore NW wind, giving into a W/SW change through the day. The Mornington Peninsula will also be tiny, increasing slightly with the change.

Friday will see what ever windswell was present Thursday afternoon fade into the early morning leaving tiny waves on the coast along with a moderate SW'ly across most locations (Torquay may see an early W'ly).

Our first pulse of new W/SW groundswell due through the day is still on track, with a broad fetch of strong to gale-force W/SW winds currently being generated south of WA and the Bight.

We'll see this generate a good pulse of W/SW groundswell, reaching 2-3ft into the afternoon/evening on the Surf Coast and 4-6ft on the Mornington Peninsula as SW onshores freshen.

A secondary fetch of broad W/SW gales moving over the active sea state generated by the first system, will project a touch closer to us as well, generating a moderate to large W/SW groundswell for Saturday.

We should see 3-4ft waves on the Surf Coast and 6ft+ waves on the Mornington Peninsula all day, easing back slowly from 3ft and 5-6ft respectively Sunday morning.

Now, winds are still looking poor with a gusty S'ly tending SE breeze on Saturday, with better but still less than ideal E/SE tending E'ly winds Sunday morning and back to the SE later.

Next week onwards (Feb 27 onwards)

Conditions will be much better on the Mornington Peninsula and Phillip Island Monday with a NE offshore as the swell continues to ease, with 3-4ft sets during the morning. The Surf Coast is only due to be small and easing from 2ft.

Through Tuesday and Wednesday the surf will become tiny on the Surf Coast, with small waves east of Melbourne with favourable winds each morning.

Later in the week some new W/SW swell is expected from a slow moving low through the Southern Ocean, but again S'ly winds look to spoil this swell. More on this Friday.