Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 13th January)

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Best Days: Experienced surfers on the Surf Coast Saturday and early Sunday, both coasts Monday morning, Surf Coast Tuesday morning

Recap

Even better surf yesterday across the Surf Coast with a mix of swells to 3-4ft under a light morning offshore wind. The Mornington Peninsula was too big across the beaches, but Flinders and Western Port offered good options.

Today the swell was hanging in early and conditions good with a light N'ly offshore breeze. We'll see the wind pick up a little from the N'th through the day ahead of a swing to the NW into the afternoon and W/SW change into the evening.

This weekend and next week (Jan 14 - 20)

All eyes are on the weekend and the large W/SW groundswell due across the state.

Currently the mid-latitude low is south of WA, with a large swell currently impacting the Margaret River region. A fetch of W/SW gales are still being aimed in our western swell window, but through today the low will broaden while drifting a touch further south, projecting gale to severe-gale W/SW winds towards us.

This will then be followed by a trailing fetch of severe-gale to storm-force SW winds through our southern swell window tomorrow.

What will result is a large and rapid increase in W/SW swell through tomorrow, with the groundswell proper filling in through the afternoon.

Mid-period swell to 4-5ft across exposed breaks is due on the Surf Coast tomorrow morning, 6-8ft on the Mornington Peninsula, building through the afternoon and reaching 6ft+ by dark across the Surf Coast and 10ft+ on the Mornington Peninsula.

The W/SW groundswell should peak overnight and start easing Sunday, likely from 4-6ft on the Surf Coast and 8-10ft on the Mornington Peninsula, but the secondary fetch of S/SW winds will generate a large reinforcing S/SW groundswell arriving mid-late morning.

This should produce a noticeable kick in energy (especially more protected spots), to 5-6ft on the Surf Coast and 8ft on the Mornington Peninsula, before easing later in the day and more so Monday from 3-4ft and 6ft respectively.

Now, winds will be best for the Surf Coast over the weekend with a morning moderate to fresh W/NW breeze tomorrow, swinging W/SW early-mid afternoon. This should provide plenty of time for two surfs for experienced surfers.

Into Sunday W/SW-SW winds are expected (S/SE late in the day) but the Torquay region is likely to see an early W/NW breeze, but conditions won't be perfect.

Monday is looking good across both coasts with a variable wind through the morning ahead of SE sea breezes.

Tuesday will be smaller and clean again on the Surf Coast with a morning N/NW offshore.

Into later Wednesday and Thursday morning, a mix of small acute W'ly swell and mid-period W/SW swell are due. The W'ly swell is being generated by a broad low south-west of WA, but this system is mainly too north and not ideal. The remnants of the low should move east and through our western swell window during next week, producing a small more consistent but weak W/SW swell.

Size wise, onshore winds and a late increase is expected Wednesday, with small 2ft waves on the Surf Coast Thursday and 3-4ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula with E'ly winds. More on this Friday, have a great weekend!