Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 22nd August)

Best Days: Both coasts each morning Tuesday and Wednesday, Surf Coast Friday, east of Melbourne Saturday and Sunday

Recap

Saturday.. On Friday I was slightly hesitant on how west in nature the swell was expected to be, but satellite observations quelled those doubts, confirming a great and slow moving fetch of storm-force winds in Victoria's west-southwest swell window.

Come Saturday morning the buoy reading were great off Tasmania, but inside Bass Strait, very underwhelming. Whether the swell was steered away somewhat or was just too west for Victoria is not quite known, but if I had the similar system fire up this week I probably wouldn't change much from what I forecast Friday. The Surf Coast was clean but struggling to top 3ft on the sets, while the Mornington Peninsula didn't see any overly large surf either.

Into Sunday we saw some better aligned SW swell filling in from the low as it drifted more favourably into out swell window, with good fun but slightly lumpy 3-4ft waves across the Surf Coast with 6ft sets to the east.

Fun amounts of S/SW swell have continued into today from the remnants of the slow moving and weakening low, continuing at 2-3ft on the Surf Coast (bigger sets at 13th Beach) and 3-5ft on the Mornington Peninsula with improving conditions as early W/NW winds tended light N'ly.

This week (Aug 23 - 26)

The current run of swell from the weakening and stalling low south of Tassie will continue from the S/SW tomorrow morning, mixed in with a distant and inconsistent W/SW groundswell.

Wave heights look to come in around 2ft+ across the Surf Coast and 3-4ft+ on the Mornington Peninsula. Conditions will be a little funky with a weak surface trough moving through the region, with early variable winds expected across both coasts, increasing from the S/SW through the day.

Wednesday should see similar conditions with early variable winds, increasing from the S/SW through the day. A slightly bigger but inconsistent W/SW groundswell is due, generated in the south-east Indian Ocean, keeping 2ft to possibly 3ft sets hitting magnets like 13th Beach on the Surf Coast and 3-5ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula.

Our dynamic and deepening inland low that was forecast last week isn't expected to play out as forecast by the models, with a cold outbreak across WA not combining with an infeed of moisture from the north.

Instead these systems will work independent of each other, with the cold outbreak drawing in cold onshore S/SW winds on Thursday. The Surf Coast is likely to see early W/NW breezes, but there won't be much size on offer.

Into Friday a very inconsistent long-range W/SW-SW groundswell is due across the state, generated by a sustained and strong polar frontal progression moving through the southern Indian Ocean. This progression developed south of South Africa last week, and has been moving towards us, with it now being east of Heard Island, generating a weakening fetch of severe-gale W/SW tending W/NW winds.

The initial stages of this progression was in our western swell window, with the final stages more in out south-western swell window.

The Surf Coast should see inconsistent but fun 3ft sets through the day, with 4-6ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula. Winds should tend W/NW across the Surf Coast, but we'll have another look at this Wednesday.

Into the weekend, easing surf with northerly winds are expected favouring locations east of Melbourne.