Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 27th January)

Best Days: Desperate surfers early tomorrow and Friday morning east of Melbourne, both coasts Saturday and Sunday mornings

Recap

Poor onshore waves yesterday and a mix of swells, while today started average early but conditions have improved across both coasts with winds swinging offshore from the E/NE on the Mornington Peninsula, and lighter from the E on the Surf Coast.

Peaky fun 3ft sets are on offer across the Mornington Peninsula with less perfect 2-3ft waves at Barwon Heads and sloppy conditions around Torquay.

This week and weekend (Jan 28 - 31)

Much cleaner and straighter conditions are due across the Surf Coast at dawn tomorrow with an early NW breeze, but the swell will be tiny with fading 1ft+ sets. An onshore change is due mid-morning creating poor conditions for the rest of the day.

The Mornington Peninsula should see early N'ly winds but small inconsistent 2ft sets. Aim for the dawny around Portsea.

Tomorrow's change will be related to a weakening front pushing towards us, with no major swell due into Friday.

Tiny 1ft waves are due to persist across the Surf Coast with 2ft+ sets on the Mornington Peninsula. Conditions should be clean though with a light morning variable wind ahead of a weak S'ly change.

Saturday is the day to surf, with a new inconsistent SW groundswell to 2-3ft at swell magnets on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft on the Mornington Peninsula, easing through the day. This has been generated by a polar low south-west of WA the last couple of days.

Conditions are looking clean with a light morning offshore across both coasts, before swinging SE through the day as a broad and tricky low sitting across us drifts slowly east.

A new long-range and inconsistent SW groundswell is due Sunday morning, from a deep but unfavourably tracking polar low south-west of WA again, weakening before pushing east of a line dawn south from WA. This should keep inconsistent 2ft sets hitting the Surf Coast, with 3-4ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula. Winds are still a little tricky but likely to be light from the NW through the morning, swinging onshore during the day.

Next week onwards (Feb 1 onwards)

Nothing significant is due into early next week, but a strong and powerful mid-latitude low forming under WA is expected to push east while generating a healthy fetch of gale to severe-gale W/SW winds through our western swell window.

A moderate to large W/SW groundswell should develop for Thursday, but we'll have another look at this on Friday.