Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 24th August)

Best Days: Possible Wednesday afternoon east of Melbourne and dawn Thursday both coasts (check back Wed)

Recap

Tiny clean waves across the Surf Coast Saturday with workable 2ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula early before winds shifted more W'ly.

A small spike in new swell was seen Sunday with good winds for the Surf Coast, providing 2ft sets before an onshore change moved through around midday.

This change is linked to a surface trough moving across the region with it starting to deepen over NSW resulting in strengthening onshore winds through today from the S/SE. This is kicking up building levels of windswell with a good SW groundswell in the mix, but no real quality options.

This week and weekend (Aug 25 - 30)

As touched on the last few updates, this week isn't too flash with the trough deepening over NSW due to move offshore this evening and stall and strengthen, resulting in persistent SE to E'ly winds across our coasts all week.

The small possible window for variable winds Thursday is also still on the cards but less likley.

So tomorrow we can expect a mix of easing SW groundswell and SE windswell with moderate to fresh SE winds, while Wednesday's strong building SW groundswell with E'ly winds is still on forecast.

This swell is being produced by an elongated and strong polar frontal progression passing under the country, with it due to peak through the day Wednesday to 3-5ft on the Surf Coast and 6-8ft but with poor and fresh E/SE to E'ly winds. There's a chance winds tend lighter E/NE through the day but keep an eye on local observations regarding this.

Thursday will see the SW groundswell ease but the models diverge on the position of the low and whether we'll see lighter and more variable winds during the morning. At this stage it looks like the odds are low on this developing, but we'll have a much clearer idea on this come Wednesday.

In any case onshore S'ly winds will develop no matter what happens into the afternoon and remain onshore Friday from the S/SE.

A good reinforcing SW groundswell pulse is due from the tail of the strong frontal progression moving through the Southern Ocean, arriving Thursday afternoon but with those onshore winds.

Into the weekend a drop in swell is due as onshore S/SE winds persist both Saturday and Sunday.

Into Sunday afternoon and more so Monday a mix of long period and very inconsistent SW groundswells energy is due, generated by a very strong and broad polar frontal progression in the Indian Ocean (generating large swells for Indonesia).

The swells will lose a lot of their size and consistency and peak Monday morning to an infrequent 3ft+ on the Surf Coast and 5-6ft+ on the Mornington Peninsula with hopefully improving winds from the NE.

Longer term there's nothing too significant due but we'll review this all again on Wednesday.