Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 21st August)

Best Days: No good days until Wednesday east of Melbourne and Thursday next week

Recap

Slow start to the surf across the Surf Coast yesterday morning with inconsistent 1-2ft waves across exposed breaks, while the Mornington Peninsula was a clean 3-5ft. A good new S/SW groundswell filled in through the afternoon but came in a little under expectations offering 3ft+ sets across the beaches on the Surf Coast and larger waves on the Mornington Peninsula as winds remained favourable.

The swell was all but gone this morning though with fading 1-2ft sets on the Surf Coast and 2-3ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula.

This weekend and next week (Aug 22 - 28)

With the swell fading back considerably into this morning, there'll be nothing really left to surf tomorrow, especially as winds swing to the NW.

Sunday is now looking to see a continuation of W'ly winds through the morning and a small background swell to 1-2ft on the Surf Coast and 3-4ft on the Mornington Peninsula. Our onshore change through the day is now expected later, with winds swinging S'ly through the mid-late afternoon.

Now, as talked about last update, next week is still looking poor with a stalling and strengthening low pressure system off the NSW coast.

This will direct a strengthening S/SE tending SE breeze into our coasts on Monday, persisting from the E/SE to SE Tuesday.

There is some relief from the wind due Wednesday as an embedded trough develops to our west, resulting in winds tending more E'ly across both coasts and possibly variable into Thursday.

This will also be at the same time as a moderate to large SW groundswell fills in, generated by a vigorous and multi-staged polar frontal progression moving in from the west through the weekend and early next week.

This swell should build to an inconsistent but strong 3-5ft across the Surf Coast Wednesday afternoon with 6-8ft on the Mornington Peninsula, easing from a touch less size Thursday morning. But as stated above, E'ly winds will create problems Wednesday while a more variable breeze could bring hope Thursday.

Friday at this stage looks to see the small embedded trough to our west drifting back across us bringing strong E/SE winds back to both coasts.

Next weekend should finally see winds swing back offshore from the N'th but with small easing levels of swell.

Longer term there's some good groundswell energy due from late next Sunday into the following week, but we'll review this again Monday. Have a great weekend!