Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 20th April)

Best Days: Wednesday morning for keen surfers, Thursday from mid-morning for keen surfers, Friday, Saturday morning, early Sunday around Torquay

Recap

Excellent waves on the Surf Coast Saturday with a clean easing 3-4ft of swell under offshore winds that persisted until a late afternoon onshore change moved through.

Come Sunday a large and powerful W/SW groundswell filled in but with fresh onshore winds which made it hard to pick the real size. Reports of 6ft+ waves on the Surf Coast and 10-12ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula sound around the mark, but only super protected spots offered any real decent options for a surf.

Today the swell has dropped back more than expected with onshore 3-4ft waves on the Surf Coast and 6ft+ sets on the Mornington Peninsula under a moderate to fresh S/SE breeze.

This week (Apr 21 - 24)

We've got an average week ahead with persistent onshore winds linked to a deepening East Coast Low off the NSW coast.

This low will sit south of Sydney nearly the entire week with a weak onshore southerly pressure gradient extending over our state until about Friday.

With this we'll see onshore winds through tomorrow from the S'th before becoming lighter from the S/SE into Wednesday. A moderate SW groundswell is due through tomorrow before easing Wednesday from a frontal system currently to our south-west and this will keep 3ft sets hitting the Surf Coast and 5-6ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula.

A low point in swell is due early Thursday before a new long-period SW groundswell arrives mid-late morning and peaks into the afternoon.

The source of this swell will be a vigorous polar frontal system firing up south-west of WA today, aiming a fetch of severe-gale W/SW winds through our western swell window with stronger storm-force winds at its core. The front will track a little unfavourably to the east-southeast as it pushes under the country, but we'll still see some strong swell spreading up radially into us for Thursday.
The Surf Coast should build to 3-5ft with 6-8ft surf on the Mornington Peninsula and there should be some OK options with a lighter SE'ly, but keep your expectations low.

Friday will be the day to surf though with an easing swell from 3-4ft on the Surf Coast and 6ft+ on the Mornington Peninsula under N/NW tending W/NW winds. Locations east of Melbourne should see a better N'ly for the first few hours of the morning.

This weekend onwards (Apr 25 onwards)

The weekend is quite dynamic as we're expected to see a smaller SW groundswell fill in from the backside of the strong frontal progression moving through this week, as well as a larger short-range swell from a deepening mid-latitude low.

This low is forecast to form under South Australia on Friday and move slowly east while aiming a fetch of severe-gale W'ly winds through our western swell window.

The low itself is due to move across us through Saturday and with this we'll see a large kick in W/SW swell, building to the 5ft range on the Surf Coast and 8ft range on the Mornington Peninsula but with onshore SW winds. The models are still a little divergent surrounding the timing and size of this swell so we'll have to review this again Wednesday and Friday.

Come Sunday the swell is due to ease under W/SW winds (likely W/NW around Torquay through the morning).

Longer term there's nothing too significant on the cards but we'll review this Wednesday.