Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 28th May)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Very large S'ly tending S/SE swell Thurs, but generally wind affected at all but the most sheltered spots
• Solid, clean, easing swell Fri and early Sat with light winds
• Solid long period S'ly swell late Sat, easing Sun and into Mon, clean with light winds
• Next week now looking more dynamic
• Potential for small, fun NE swell Tues into Wed from winds feeding into low- winds look favourable
• Large low pressure gyre may form in Tasman from mid next week with swells from the S to SE , potentially sizey and long lived.

Recap

Small, clean waves yesterday which was the last in an excellent run from the E saw some 2ft sets under freshening W/NW tending W’ly winds. This morning we have a brisk W’ly wind and increasing S swell with size already building from 2-3ft to 3-4ft and a further increase expected through the day. 

Building S swells on the Hunter as low deepens in Tasman

Next week (May 28 - 30)

A strong cold outbreak has led to the formation of a winter-calibre low in the Tasman (984hPa), backed by a strong, slow moving high in the Bight. We’re seeing the formation of strong S swells from this system, which will peak tomorrow then ease with a following front and deep low well to the south providing a strong S groundswell over the weekend under light winds.

In the short run we’ll see fresh W-SW winds early tomorrow as the low tracks NE through the Tasman towards NZ and the high remains slow moving, holding a tight pressure gradient across central NSW. Those winds will clock around S’ly and hold at mod/fresh paces so direct exposed S facing beaches and reefs will be wind affected. Plenty of size expected though as swell trains from the S through S/SE makes landfall. Exposed S facing beaches and bommies will likely be in the 8-10ft range (bigger 10-12ft sets very possible at deepwater reefs!), grading smaller into more sheltered spots. By mid-late arvo we should see a slow easing trend in play.

Friday is still looking good. There’ll still be a strong high in the bight but with the low in the Tasman now on the other side of New Zealand pressure gradients will be slacker along the coast. A minor weak front should provide a morning W-W/SW flow before winds clock around to lighter S’lies. Still some S’ly quarter wind which will affect really exposed S facing spots but generally speaking there should be lots of surfable options. Size will have come down from Thursday’s peak into the 5-6ft range but with swell direction tending more favourable S/SE there should be lots of good/great waves around. Underlying it will be some inconsistent E’ly energy from a distant South Pacific fetch which will be adding a stray 3ft set into the mix- probably not worth positioning yourself in the line-up for.

This weekend (May 31 - Jun 1)

Not much change to the weekend outlook. As Ben mentioned on Mon a powerful polar low moving through the lower Tasman Thurs/Fri looks to send a long period S swell up the pipe. It’s an impressive fetch with severe gale to storm force winds in a wide band moving NE, only offset by winds being not perfectly aimed up the pipe (the system reforms SE of New Zealand and looks to send a very large swell towards Tahiti and Northern Hemisphere targets).

Light winds for Sat as high pressure drifts over Southern NSW with light land breezes and a’noon E’ly breezes, all under 10kts.

Surf looks to be a little undersized early in the 3ft range before long period S swell fills in through late morning/lunch-time (earlier on the South Coast). With swell periods in the 14-16 second band we could see some real size and juice at deepwater adjacent reefs - up into the 8ft range- with most beaches considerably smaller,  4-5ft with 6ft sets across most S exposed breaks and smaller again at more sheltered spots. 

Size should be holding or just a touch smaller into Sun morning before easing through the day quite quickly as the swell ramps down in the a’noon. Winds looks perfect with light offshores and a’noon seabreezes. 

There will be that small undercurrent of E/NE swell in the mix over the weekend (inconsistent 2-3ft) which could provide some fun waves for more sheltered spots. 

Next week (Jun 2 onwards)

Tiny to start next week as high pressure drifts NE into the Tasman so expect at least Mon to be insignificant with light winds tending N-NE in the a’noon.

Tues now looks interesting as a small low is progged to form off the NSW Central Coast. An increase in local NE-E/NE swell is on the cards from winds feeding into the low, along with a wind change to the SW as the swell builds. Still low confidence in specifics but worth pencilling in at this stage.

Further ahead and there’s now building model agreement on a complex low pressure gyre forming in the Tasman from mid next week, potentially offering a long lived S through SE swell event with multiple pulses. Too far out to have any confidence in specifics but keep the good wave boards on hand as we move into the opening stanza of winter.

We’ll have a better idea about how next week is shaping up on Fri.

Seeya then!