Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 7th Feb)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small blend of E/NE and NE swells over the weekend with tricky winds due to stalled trough
• Should be N’ly from Sydney north to Hunter, more variable south of Sydney (S’lies possible Sun)
• Better outlook now for next week with small E/NE swells increasing through mid week as lows move more slowly through swell window
• More significant E swells now on the radar for next weekend or early week after
• Spike in S swell likely Sat into Sun
• Potential for more long lasting S-S/SE swell if surface low forms in Tasman
• Overall dynamic outlook so check back Mon for latest revisions

Recap

Fun waves from the tropical trade fetch supplied 2-3ft surf yesterday morning with glassy-lumpy conditions under light morning land breezes before light/variable a’noon breezes while the swell kicked a notch into the a’noon with 3-4ft surf. Still nice conditions this morning under light morning land breezes but we’ll see N tending NE winds kick up to mod/fresh paces this a’noon. Size is down a notch but still offering up the odd 2-3ft set and we’ll see some minor NE windswell come into the mix through the late a’noon. 

Fun waves at a Sydney secret spot

This weekend (Feb 8-9)

No great change to the weekend outlook. NE winds feeding into an approaching trough of low pressure currently in Bass Strait generate a notch more NE windswell into the 2-3ft range, added onto a small, residual E/NE swell to 2ft. The trough looks to stall about the Gippsland/South Coast tomorrow with S’ly winds extending up to about Batemans Bay/Ulladulla tomorrow and N’ly winds north of there. The trough does look to oscillate north and south tomorrow so if you are planning on putting miles on the clock expect variability in winds south of Jervis Bay. 

The trough does move north into Sun but now looks to stall and wash out on the Illawarra so expect continuing N’ly winds from the Hunter to Sydney and variable winds on the Illawarra to Cronulla, likely with a S’ly component before tending SE-NE in the a’noon. Not much surf on offer Sun- just a small signal of E/NE swell from the top of the high and a little increase in short period S-S/SE swell (1-2ft at best) from winds feeding into the stalled trough- slightly bigger on the South Coast but of mediocre quality. 

Next week (Feb10 onwards)

New high pressure moves SE of Tasmania to start next week and compared to Wed’s notes it’s looking stronger and slower moving, which is good news for surf potential, especially medium term as it anchors low pressure drifting down from the tropics into the wide open South Pacific slot.

We should see E’ly winds on Mon, generally light, although there is a curve ball with the stalled trough area which may fire up just north of Sydney and direct a stronger E’ly flow onshore through the region. Models are offering mixed messages there which makes confidence low in local winds. 

Depending on how the trough behaves we should at least see periods of lighter winds Mon into Tues.

Surfwise E/NE swell from winds off the top of the high will hold small surf in the 2ft range Mon, up a notch through Tues as the general wind field in the Southern Coral and Northern Tasman seas becomes more animated and more mid period swells make landfall.

That signal of E/NE swell should strengthen further into mid week as swells from a stalled low in the South Pac and rebuild in tradewind fetch in the Coral Sea further increase energy. Compared to Mondays notes where this low was expected to slide off quickly to the SE, it nows moves slowly and stalls. That will see size up into the provisional 3-4ft range with light/mod N-NE winds. 

Expect that swell to hang in there through Thurs and possibly Fri at similar levels. We may even see further reinforcement Fri - Sat is more likely- from another slow moving low now budding off the monsoon trough and becoming slow moving as it tracks from New Caledonia towards the North Island.

Under current modelling that would see even better quality E quadrant swell filling in through next weekend, possibly up in the the 4-6ft range, or bigger, on the sets as a more signicant low stalls near the North Island. Still a ways off so confidence is reduced but model agreement is looking good. Hopefully we can be in a position to deliver an upgrade on Mon.

Models are also suggesting a trough in advance of a front bringing a sharp S’ly change over the weekend with an intensification of the trough and strong S’ly fetch bringing a spike in S swell through the weekend. There’s potential for that trough to form a surface low in the Tasman and generate some quality S tending S/SE swell late in the weekend, early week 17/2. 

Too early to have any confidence in specifics but the general outlook looks dynamic.

Make sure you check back Mon for latest updates and until then, have a great weekend!