Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Dec 30th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Very quiet end to 2024 with small, weak windswells and light winds
• Possible minor NE windswell New Years Day a’noon
• Small flush of short range S swell Thurs, easing Fri
• Tiny on Sat, small NE windswell Sun with N/NE winds both days
• Small NE windswell peaks Mon
• Another trough Tues next week brings a spike in short range S-S/SE swell, easing Wed
• Nothing concrete from mid next week, still quiet in the tropics and Southern swell windows

Recap

Small leftover S/SE swells on Sat provided some surfable options in the 2-3ft range, hampered by S’ly winds most of the day. By Sun size had eased right back to 1-2ft, albeit with clean conditions under light land and seabreezes. Tiny again today with a faint signal from the S-SE in the 1-1.5ft range under light winds. 

Dribbly but surfable at S facing beaches

This week (Dec 30-Jan 3)

Very weak pressure gradients in the Tasman and Coral Seas as we count down 2024. Weak high pressure occupies most of the Tasman with a broad troughy area off the sub-tropical QLD coast directing a weak SE flow. Nothing happening in the South Pacific this week and a weak front and trough Thurs looks to bring a minor flush of short period S swell, which is the main swell source for temperate NSW for the week. Further ahead we’ll see a developing N’ly flow over the weekend bring some NE windswell to Central/Southern NSW late in the weekend, early next week. A trough next week tightens the pressure gradient along a developing high pressure ridge, with reasonable odds of some workable S/SE-SE swell mid next week. We’re still looking at developments in the tropics but despite broad, tropical low pressure across the South Pacific Convergence Zone, our first major tropical depression of the summer remains elusive. There are some signals at the end of long range charts to keep tabs on. Read on for details.

In the short run we’ll see a low energy end to 2024 and start to 2025. No swell sources of any significance so expect tiny surf tomorrow with light winds tending to light E-E/NE seabreezes. Great day for inshore diving or rock fishing with beginners and kids finding a just rideable wave at open beaches. 

Not much different on New Years Day 2025. We’ll see light winds early (NW-W) before a little more strength in the N-NE flow in the a’noon. That should see slightly more NE windswell in the water by close of play. So tiny surf to start with a slight building trend in weak NE windswell unlikely to exceed 1-2ft. 

A trough brings a S-S/SE change o/night Wed into Thurs with mod/fresh S’ly tending S/SE’ly winds. Modelling suggests a rapid spike in short period locally generated swell from the same direction. No great quality expected but we should see surf build rapidly Thurs from 2ft to 3ft at S exposed breaks, smaller into more sheltered locations.

The trough moves away rapidly later Thurs into Fri so we should see winds moderate quickly into Fri, with a light SE-E/SE flow tending to weak E’ly breezes during the day. Short range S/SE-SE swell to 2-3ft eases during the a’noon. We may see some slightly better quality S’ly swell trains in the mix from a parent fetch which scoots across the Tasman. Models aren’t interested but with light winds on tap it’ll be worth scoping out S magnets for a little more size. 

This weekend (Jan4-5)

Tiny surf Sat under a developing N’ly flow. We may see some rideable S/SE swell leftovers to 1-2ft at S facing beaches early, with a minor NE windswell in the a’noon. Most beaches will be 1-1.5ft tops through the day.

Sun looks like more energy as NE windswell starts to build in response to a strengthening N/NE flow as high pressure and an approaching trough combine (see above). We should see NE windswell build to 2-3ft during the day under a mod/fresh N/NE flow. Nothing amazing but surfable.

Next week (Jan 6 onwards)

Fun NE windswells build a notch into Mon as the fetch matures. We should see size in the 3ft range under a mod/fresh N-N/NE flow. 

A front and trough Tues bring a S-S/SE change and an increase in swell from the S/SE-SE. Models are a bit divergent on outcomes but it’s likely it’ll be another quick up and down in short range swell of mediocre quality at this stage. We’ll pencil in 3ft for size at this stage and finesse as we go through the week. 

There is a chance some of the front will stall near the South Island and potentially be a source of S/SE swell later next week. We’ll see how that looks on Wed.

Otherwise, back to small, insignificant swells for the second half of next week, likely small SE-E swells.

In the tropics we’ll be watching a weak low off the QLD coast early next week forming in the monsoon trough and a low forming in the South Pacific well to the NE of Fiji. No concrete surf potential off either of them at this stage but we’ll flag them for now and see how they look on Wed. Weak pressure gradients in the South Pacific have been a feature of this summer so far, but at some point we’ll see something spin up. 

Let's hope it’s soon.

Seeya Wed for the latest f/cast notes.