Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Oct 11th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Mod/fresh S’ly-S/SE’ly winds Sat, easing during Sun and shifting N-NE
• Mix of S swells Sat, mostly wind affected 
• Small mix of S swells Sun AM with better quality mid period S swell from late morning
• Small S swells to start next week
• Long period S groundswell expected Tues/Wed next week 
• Dynamic outlook next week as trough deepens and surface low forms in Tasman Tues
• Increase in S swell Tues with onshore winds
• Wed could be unreal with offshore winds and a mix of S-SE swells 
• Easing swells later next week
• Another trough/low possibly forming in Tasman next weekend- check back Mon for latest updates

Recap

S-S/SE swell hung in there yesterday at reasonable levels with size to 3 occ. 4ft at S facing beaches and an early light land breeze which tended mod/fresh NE (more E’ly on the Hunter). This morning we’ve got a small mixed bag to 2 occ. 3ft with a stalled trough seeing mostly light SW breezes across the region (surface conditions still a bit lumpy from overnight S’lies) which are expected to tend NE before a late S change as the trough deepens and moves N. That change will likely occur after dark across most of the region.

Rideable leftovers this morning

This weekend (Oct 12-13)

Not much change for the weekend f/cast. We have a broad front passing into the Tasman and a northwards moving trough, with a high pressure ridge filling in behind those short range features. The front will supply workable levels of S swell over the weekend but winds will be a problem with a a mod/fresh S’ly flow tomorrow, tending SE’ly during the day making most spots open to the S a blown out mess. Sheltered spots will see a much smaller wave but unless you have a very high tolerance for blown out surf they’ll be the only options. Size building to 4-5ft (mostly short range windswell) at open locations during the day with much smaller surf into more sheltered spots.

Winds shift from SE to NE on Sun as the front moves away and mobile high pressure quickly moves into the Tasman. There’ll be a brief early moving window of NW-N/NW winds before they tend N then NE. That will open up the playing field for S facing beaches and there should be some workable S swell in the water to 2-3ft with better quality mid period S swell through the later morning to 3 occ. 4ft at S facing beaches and reefs. 

Next week (Oct 14 onwards)

Still looking very dynamic next week. Mon looks nothing special with a few leftover S swell trains offering up some 2-3ft surf for the morning, with N’ly winds freshening as a trough approaches. That may see some small NE windswell develop in the a’noon- not exceeding 2ft or so.

The trough should bring a gusty S’ly change just on or after dark. 

The trough looks to rapidly deepen into a broad surface low off the Far South or Gippsland Coast o/night Mon into Tues. There’s still model divergence over the strength and position of this low which will have material impacts on surf size and local winds so stay tuned for updates over the weekend and on Mon.

The gist of it is a mod/fresh S-SE local wind flow Tues with increasing swells from the southern quadrant. We’ll pencil in building swells to 3-5ft and adjust accordingly. Tricky day with smaller surf in more sheltered locations. We’ll also see long period S swell trains fill in during the a’noon.

Wed looks a different story with good odds the low will move slightly S-SE and drag an offshore outflow over Southern/Central NSW. Under this scenario we’ll see all day offshores on Wed (W-W/NW) and a mix of S-S/SE swell from the low and long period S groundswell also in the mix. Size provisionally looks in the 4-5ft range if the current modelling holds. Pencil in Wed. It could be one of those days.

Easing swells Thurs and Fri with light winds.

Into next weekend another dynamic synoptic situation presents itself with an inland trough moving across NSW and potentially spawning a surface low off the NSW South Coast. Again, we have a range of potential surf scenarios including NE infeed swells and strong S-SE swells off the southern flank of the low depending on how it evolves. 

Way too far away to have any confidence in specifics but we’ll keep tabs over the weekend and check back in Mon.

Until then, have a great weekend!