Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Sep 25th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Brief window of light winds Thurs (Hunter only) before front/trough brings fresh/strong S-S/SE winds
• Mix of small S and NE swells Thurs AM before a steep increase in S swell in the a’noon
• Windy and sizey from the S-S/SE on Fri
• E’ly winds Sat with modest E’ly swells
• Better quality E-E/NE swells Sun with morning light winds and a’noon E-NE breezes
• Good quality E/NE swells persist into Mon with morning light winds and a S-SE change
• Easing E/NE swells into Tues with morning offshores and a SW change
• New S swell pulses later Wed into Thurs
• Small S swells easing into next weekend

Recap

Long period S swell trains showed to 18-20 second on southern NSW buoys yesterday morning, with the bulk of the swell energy in the 15-16 second band filling in during the day and offering up 4ft sets at S facing beaches under W/NW tending N’ly winds. That pulse is winding back now with easing 3-4ft sets still in play this morning under light NW-N winds, expected to freshen then tend NW in the a’noon. We should see some minor NE windswell in the mix through the a’noon offering some tiny sidewinders at favourable locations.

Still some long lines from the S this morning

This week (Sep 25-27)

Model consistency has improved to the point where we now have reasonable confidence over short term outcomes of a dynamic synoptic situation set to unfold over the next 24-36hrs. A robust front linked to a deep low is expected to migrate up the southern NSW coast o/night and into the wee hours, with a surface low expected to form off the North Coast as a trough interacts with the front. We’ll see strong S’ly, tending SE’ly winds into the end of the week from tomorrow with sizey (but not huge) S-S/SE swells with an easing pattern over the weekend as the system quickly becomes focussed on the sub-tropics.

In the short run the S’ly change looks to be across the entire f/cast region by 7am, with just a quick dawny on offer for the Hunter before the wind hits, offering some S swell leftovers to 2-3ft. Otherwise, we’ll see strong to potential low end gales from the S/SW tending S’ly then S/SE’ly through the a’noon making a big, windy mess of most places. Short range S swell will steeply rise from lunch-time, with size building to 6ft by close of play. Not many options around with much smaller surf at more protected locations.

We should see a moderating synoptic wind Fri as the surface low forming off the North Coast draws the majority of winds northwards. Still some mod/fresh S/SE-SE winds through the first half of the day but by the a’noon we’ll see those winds back off. Swells will ease too with S/SE swells to 5-6ft early dropping down quickly to 3-4ft in the a’noon. Still heavily wind affected though, so keep expectations pegged low for Fri with sheltered spots the only chance of a decent wave.

This weekend (Sep28-29)

High pressure moves off the Far South Coast into the Tasman over the weekend with a low pressure system off the SEQLD coast directing a broad fetch of SE-E/SE winds through the Northern Tasman (see below). This will produce large E’ly swells for the sub-tropics with smaller swells down into temperate NSW. An E’ly flow across the weekend is expected with a small chance of morning land breezes Sat, better odds for Sun with winds tending more NE in the a’noon.

Under current modelling we should see 3ft of E’ly swell Sat.

With the fetch lengthening out Fri/Sat better quality, mid period E-E/NE swell Sun boosts a notch into the 3-4ft range. 

Winds will be a bit of an issue so you may need to sacrifice some quality and surf in an onshore flow. With wind speeds looking to be sub 15kts it should remain workable even if a bit ratty.

Next week (Sep30 onwards)

Looking pretty good to start next week with the low in the Northern Tasman continuing to send quality E/NE swell to 4ft to the f/cast region with light winds expected for the early. Uncertain winds later as a trough brings a change through the day with S-SE winds likely by late morning. 

That swell starts to ease back through Tues as the system starts to ease, although we should see the low devolve into a long trough through the Tasman, with a broad E/NE infeed through the first half of next week, suggesting fun sized E/NE-NE swells holding at least 3ft through Tues, easing back further into Wed. Early light winds Tues before a front brings a SW change.

Further ahead and we’ll see swells switch back to the S as the front pushes into the Tasman Tues/Wed (see below). That should see a modest kick in new S swell later Wed into Thurs which we’ll pencil in in the 3-4ft range for now and adjust accordingly.

Looks like easing swells into next weekend as an elongated high in the Tasman offers a mild blocking pattern. 

We’ll see how that looks on Fri.

For now, batten down the hatches short term with some better windows ahead as winds ease off.

Seeya Fri.