Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Sep 18th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small long period S swells into Thurs with offshore winds tending W/SW-SW in the a’noon
• Small clean surf Fri AM with a fresh pulse of S swell in the a'noon
• S swell lingering into Sat AM before easing
• A few small S swells at S facing beaches Sun
• More offshore winds this weekend 
• Small boost in size Mon with offshore winds tending NE
• Possible NE windswell on the radar Tues/Wed
• Possible S groundswell Wed next week
• Stronger front in the Tasman mid week suggests sizier S swell Thurs/Fri next week- check back Fri for latest revisions

Recap

Strong S swells built to 4-6ft yesterday a’noon with light winds tending NW in the a’noon. Today has eased back to 3-4ft with offshore W’ly tending NW’ly winds.

Plenty of S swell yesterday afternoon

This week (Sep 18-20)

High pressure is now up over NSW and sliding into the Tasman, with zonal fronts below the continent bringing mostly offshore W’ly winds to temperate NSW, more N’ly up in the sub-tropics. Frontal activity is going to generate some small S pulses in the short term with some fun waves on tap at S facing beaches. Next week we should see a stronger system move NE into the Tasman potentially generating some sizier S swell. Quite a decent outlook for September.

In the short run today S swell eases back into tomorrow with offshore W’ly winds tending W/NW-W through the day with a late shift to the W-W/SW as the front pushes across NSW and Bass Strait. Small S swells on offer- mostly inconsistent  long period swell trains offering up the occ 2-3ft set, likely becoming less consistent in the a’noon.

We’ll see some new S swell build in Fri from both Bass Strait sources then frontal winds sweeping up past Tasmania. Small to start with the occ. 2 footer but by midday into the a’noon we’ll start to see more of the swell fill in, offering up 3-4ft sets by close of play, bigger sets on the Hunter. Winds should be good for S facing beaches with early W-W/SW winds tending N’ly then NW-W/NW as the next front approaches and a trough lingers off the Mid North Coast.

This weekend (Sep21-22)

Mostly offshore winds look to continue over the weekend as frontal activity continues to push across the region. Mostly W’ly oriented winds for Sat. We may see a small, troughy disturbance offshore tilt winds SW for a period Sat- we’ll finesse that on Fri.

No major swells- more small S swells and it looks like the weekend will be a low point in activity. Fridays pulse should see some 3ft sets into Sat morning before easing off during the day with clean conditions expected. 

Offshore W-NW winds on offer for the first half of Sun. By early a’noon a frontal change will bring SW-S winds to the Illawarra, pushing into the Sydney basin mid-a’noon. At this stage, any swell increase from this system looks to occur well after dark so expect more marginal S swell for Sun, topping out at around 2ft at S facing beaches. Tiny elsewhere.

Next week (Sep23 onwards)

Sunday’s front brings  another small flush of S swell into Mon. At this stage lifting surf heights back to 2-3ft at S facing beaches with the Hunter seeing some bigger 4ft sets. Winds looks good with morning offshore breezes tending N-NE in the a’noon as a high cell moves offshore.

The Tasman Sea now looks more active next week. We should see high pressure move NE with a freshening N-NE flow Tues/Wed as a front/low approach. Models are still struggling to resolve troughiness in the Tasman, but we may see some NE windswell develop later Tues into Wed if EC model comes to fruition. A deep low passing through the Tasman looks likely to send some longer period S swell up the pipe Wed/Thurs.

Otherwise as the front pushes more aggressively into the Tasman Wed into Thurs (see below) we’re on track for some sizier S swell to develop Thurs/Fri, provisionally in the 4-6ft range with S’ly winds.

We’ll see how that looks Fri due to model divergence.

In the mean-time workable S pulses continue with offshore winds- hope your coastline is getting some.

Seeya Fri.