Sydney Hunter Illawarra Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri July 12th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• E/NE swell filtering down from trough block at increasing levels from Fri PM , peaking Sat/Sun with freshening SW winds Sat
• Winds tending more W/SW-SW Sun
• Increase in short range S swell Sat PM, extending into Sun
• Still plenty of S and E/NE swell Mon with offshore winds
• E swell holding in there until Wed, maybe a small pulse Tues
• Offshore winds most of next week
• Stronger S’ly swell expected Wed next week depending on position of low
• Plenty of S swell into the end of next week on a slow easing trend
• Surf likely to go tiny/flat with hard W’ly winds later next weekend

Recap

Tasty swells out of an unseasonal E/NE direction have maintained fun surf through the recap period with offshore mornings and light N’lies yesterday tending variable and then SW today. Size has hovered around the 3ft mark with a few subtle ups and downs. If you had access to a serviceable bank there were some good waves to be had.

Another day of crispy goodness on the beachies

This weekend (July 13-14)

Not much change to the weekend f/cast swell-wise. The circulation in the trough line has increased wind speeds in the fetch as the air mass moves from high to low pressure. As a result we’ll see an increase in wave heights and period through tomorrow. We’re still on track for solid 6ft+ surf from the E with bigger sets likely on the South Coast reefs which face into the swell. The return flow from the deepening low as it tracks southwards in the trough line will see mod/fresh SW winds all day. There may be periods of more S/SW wind but by a’noon they should back around more SW and even W/SW is possible. The proximate fetch of S/SW winds will generate a spike in new S swell, up to 4-5ft in the a’noon, with bigger 6ft sets likely on the Hunter. 

Those winds should remain SW-W/SW into Sun. An energetic mix of E/NE-E and S swells will be in the water- with size to 5-6ft from the S and 4-5ft from the E, easing during the day. If you can find somewhere making sense of the dual swells in the water there should be some good/great surf on offer. Just a caveat on winds. We are relying on the low to move south, even S/SW for those winds to tend more W’ly so local variations are possible if the low stalls or behaves in an untoward fashion. We’ll update below the line if this happens.

Next week (July 15 onwards)

Still a tricky outlook next week with the low expected to deepen but continue to move S or S/SW and end up close to the Gippsland coast or Tasmania with some of the swell generating winds blocked by Tasmania and/or Green Cape. 

Meanwhile the infeed into the trough block and now low retreats towards the North Island but shows signs of reintensifying as it does so. 

So we’ll see a mix of S and E’ly swells next week, although expect revisions on Mon, as we get a clearer focus on how the Tasman Low will behave.

High confidence winds will be offshore most of the week as we get outflow from the low and a resultant cold outbreak stretches right up into sub-tropical latitudes. Straight W’lies look likely from dawn to dusk right through to Wed, with winds in the second half of the week possibly tending more W/SW-SW as the low moves back northwards. In short, there’ll be fun to good quality waves all next week.

Mon should remain an energetic mix of S and E/NE swells to 3-5ft with straight offshore winds. Longer period E’ly swells look to fill in either later Mon or early Tues with 3 occ. 4ft sets with S swell easing in the mix.

Low confidence from there. We should see some renewal in S swell later next week, possibly as early as Wed as the low moves north again and we get a slingshot fetch from an advancing cold front. 

We may also see a more S/SE swell pulse later next week under the EC scenario which suggests a deeper fetch in the Tasman as the low becomes complex and slow moving.

Either way, expect more S angled swell into the second half of next week, possibly sizey.

Further ahead and looks like we will see strong W’ly winds establish into next weekend as zonal winds push northwards over the continent. In the absence of other swells that should see surf become groomed and flat through the weekend. The following frontal system and low looks to be slow moving under the continent so we may be relying on small, refracted S swells from W’ly fetches in Bass Strait. 

Lets see how it looks on Mon.

Until then enjoy the weekend of waves!