Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Mar 22nd)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small, fun weekend with light winds favouring S swell magnets
• Small Mon AM with light winds, small bump in S swell in the a’noon under NE breezes
• Moderate S swell pulses Tues/Wed next week although winds may be a problem
• Small S swells continue into the Easter Weekend
• Possible S/SE-SE swell later in the Easter weekend- check back Mon for latest updates

Recap

After good waves Wed, strong S’lies Thurs made surf mostly a write-off although there was plenty of short range S swell in the water to 3-5ft. Today has seen more settled conditions with light winds offering up workable surf, although still with a bit of leftover bump on it. Size is easing with some S swell to 3ft and smaller E/NE swell mixed in. Light winds this morning will trend to light NE seabreezes this a’noon.

Workable beachbreak peaks on offer this morning with light winds

This weekend (Mar 23-24)

Just a few small tweaks for the weekend f/cast. We’re still looking at light winds, especially Sat, which should remain light and variable all day under sunny skies. A lingering part of the trough in the central/Eastern Tasman should hold some 2-3ft surf from  the S/SE-SE mixed with some inconsistent E/NE swell to 2ft or so for the morning. Not very high powered but enough for a few fun beachies. 

Similar for Sun but a stalled trough may see a SW flow south of Sydney, with light/variable winds continuing north of the Harbour, trending to light E-NE seabreezes in the a’noon. We should see some flukey S swell from frontal activity below the continent but I’d expect it to be hit and miss so you may need a reliable S swell magnet to see anything worthwhile. Otherwise, just small E/NE swell leftovers to 1-2ft will be on offer. 

Next week (Mar 25 onwards)

Light winds continue into Mon with a mod NE seabreeze. Small S and E swells still on offer, head to S magnets for 2 occ. 3ft sets. Small and weak elsewhere. 

S swells from frontal activity now look a notch more active next week as the W-E progression of the next high cell (and subsequently fronts) slows and allows more intrusion into the lower Tasman. We should see a small bump in size Mon a’noon up into the 2 occ 3ft range at S facing beaches as a first pulse makes landfall.

Bigger by a notch Tues into the 3ft range, 4ft at magnets and the Hunter. Winds look good Tues morning with an offshore flow before a trough/front brings a S’ly change, likely around the start of business hours. Winds tend mod/fresh S to SE through the a’noon.

Tuesday's pulse eases into Wed with S facing beaches holding 2-3ft surf under unfavourable S/SE-SE winds  although they are expected to lay down in the a’noon as pressure gradients ease.

S’ly winds remains with us through Thurs into Good Friday as another front pushes into the Tasman and a large high finally builds a ridge up the coast. We should see that ridge relax through Good Friday as the high moves into the Tasman. We’ll see a continuation of small S swell through this period. Likely up a notch into Thurs a’noon, and holding into Fri. These aren’t major pulses- just up and down in the 2-3ft range with some bigger 4ft sets at magnets so we’ll finesse timing on Mon.

Further ahead small S swell continues into Easter Sat. 

There’s reasonable odds we’ll see an area of low pressure develop near the North Island later next week which will see a S/SE to SE fetch develop off the West Coast of the North Island, possibly down to Cook Strait. If that happens we’re on track for some nice S/SE-SE swell possible as early as Easter Sat into Easter Sun. Bit early for specifics as models are still divergent about the outcomes and some runs not suggesting much at all to develop in that area.
We’ll flag it for now and see how it looks when we come back on Mon.

Seeya then and have a great weekend!