Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Jan 10th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Easing S swells Thurs AM
• Small E/NE swells from Fri from top of high and trough
• Workable E-E/NE swells this weekend from retrograding fetch in South Pacific, best winds Sat, S’ly change Sun
• SE windswell increases Mon under SE wind surge
• SE tending E/SE swell Tues, easing from there
• Potential S swell late next week if low forms E of Tasmania- check back Fri for updates
• Plenty of potential but nothing concrete as yet

Recap

Small mixed bag yesterday with some clean NE swell leftovers early before a morning S’ly change. Small amounts of S swell showed up in the mix. Today has seen that S swell persist to 2-3ft, bigger by a notch on the Hunter and even moreso on the South Coast with clean morning conditions and most of the energy swallowed up by a big morning high tide as we approach the new moon. 

Small S swell offering up some workable options this morning under light winds

This week (Jan 10-12)

The compact low near Tasmania is now skipping away to the SE with a large high SE of the South Island (1034 hPa) interacting with a broad low pressure trough in the South Pacific which will supply E’ly quadrant swell in the near term as the low pressure trough retrogrades back towards the east coast. The high pressure belt remains positioned well to the south with continuing troughiness and SE wind episodes ahead. We’re still in a holding pattern in the tropics with nothing major yet to form in our swell window despite an active phase of the MJO. 

In the short run we’ll see that small S swell signal drop away- with a few 2ft sets early (3ft on the Hunter) quickly swallowed by the tide and minor E/NE swell to 1-2ft. Light winds though, variable land breezes early tending to light E’lies through the day as a weak, troughy area sits offshore.

That E’ly flow tends more E/NE-NE on Fri as a reinforcing high pressure slips into the lower Tasman and the retrograding trough of low pressure in the South Pacific intrudes into the Coral Sea/Northern Tasman. The bottom of this fetch will see swells from the E/NE perk up a notch through Fri a’noon. Expect a small start (1-2ft tops) with a modest increase to 2ft or so in the a’noon with a few larger sets likely at those locations liking summer swells from the E.

This weekend (Jan 13-14)

We’re looking at similar conditions for Sat- light winds through the morning tending to light NE seabreezes in the a’noon. E/NE swell from the sub-tropics isn’t going to require a step-up, we’re still only looking at 2 occ. 3ft surf but a fun wave should be on offer.

Sunday’s a different story with a trough and front below Tasmania bringing a  S’ly change and winds shifting mod SE behind the change as a new high pressure ridge rapidly builds in behind the trough. Early winds look to be light with small amounts of E/NE swell still on offer, in the 2ft range. Through the a’noon it’s likely we’ll see some short range S/SE-SE swell filling in to 2-3ft.

High pressure straddling and E of New Zealand will have set up a long, tradewind fetch in the South Pacific with the extremity of that fetch extending into the Northern Tasman. Winds remain fairly weak in the fetch but the extended nature of it (setting up a fully developed sea state) means we should have workable levels of E-E/NE swell this weekend. Nothing sizey, just in the 2 occ. 3ft range and with a light onshore flow. 

Light E’ly breezes, tending NE in the a’noon Sat and with good odds for a morning land breeze. Sunday may see winds shift more E to SE as a new high pressure ridge builds on, although we’ll see how the timing of that looks on Wed. In short, a few small, fun beachies will be on offer for the weekend.

Next week (Jan 15 onwards)

As mentioned on Mon, the strong high under the continent and angled trough sets up a decent SE surge and wind field in the Tasman. The trough retreats NE fairly quickly but the resultant wind field should leave us with at least 3ft of SE  swell (with some S swell mixed in) through Mon with mod/fresh SE winds, easing through the day. 

With the high moving into the Central Tasman Tues we’ll see winds shift E to NE through the day and surf from the SE-E/SE in the 3ft range.

Further ahead and looks like a few near misses, as the retreating trough forms a low near the North Island which looks to slip in behind the swell shadow of same island. 

Tropical activity may still see a low form in the Coral Sea next week but models are divergent.

GFS is still favouring a deep low forming E of Tasmania in a trough line Thurs, which potentially offers mod to sizey S swell to end next week.

Low confidence on this outlook. 

We’ll keep tabs on all these prospects and hope something takes hold during this active tropical phase.

Check back Fri for the latest.