Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 10th Feb)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Fun south swell Thurs, easing Fri, plus some small east swell too; generally light winds and sea breezes
• Small leftovers Saturday (though low probability for flukey N'ly groundswell at one or two spots)
• N’ly winds Sat with a troughy S’ly change Sun AM
• Large E/NE swell from TC Gabrielle building Sun, holding Mon/Tues, easing Wed, 
• Winds from the S-SE Mon/Tues, becoming light/variable Wed
• Easing mix of swells later next week with possible NE windswell by Fri into the weekend 

Recap

Junky horrible surf for the most part yesterday with onshore winds feeding into slow moving/stalled storms creating havoc across the Illawarra and extending into the Sydney region during the day. Size was in the 3ft range with a mix of S and E swells, bigger 3-4ft on the Central and Hunter coasts. Conditions have improved today with light morning breezes and some clean 2-3ft surf- mostly S swell trains with bit of E swell mixed in, and bigger 3-4ft on the Hunter. N/NE sea breezes are kicking up from late morning/lunch-time. 

Clean options and sunshine after yesterday's deluge

This weekend (Feb 11-12)

Few tweaks to the weekend wind f/cast. Severe tropical cyclone (Cat3) Gabrielle is currently tracking SE at about 16 knots and is located about 455 nm NE of Brisbane. Early incarnations of the TC as it was drifting SW showed a fetch of storm force to severe gale NE winds around the NE quadrant which is producing a rare NNE-NE long period swell. Reef and land shadowing make this swell extremely flukey, even though it’s already showing in places along the QLD and NENSW Coast. Through Sat we may see some rare spots (facing NE) pick up some 2-3ft sets during the day but these are extremely rare events and thus have low confidence attached to them.

Otherwise, expect small leftovers for Sat in the 2ft range with the odd 3footer at magnets on the Central and Hunter coasts. Light morning winds will tend N/NE and freshen during the a’noon.

Winds now look trickier Sun, as a trough makes it’s way up the coast. A morning offshore flow is highly likely W-NW in most places, before the trough brings a SW-S change through the early morning in Syd, later morning on the Central Coast/Hunter. 

With TC Gabrielle entering the wide open Eastern swell window through today with E/NE-E gales on the southern flank we’ll see these swells build through Sun. Under-sized 3ft early, building steadily into the 5-6ft range through the post-lunch hours with some 6ft+ sets likely at NE facing spots. You’ll need to work with S’ly quarter winds, tending S/SE through the a’noon but there’ll be plenty of swell energy into protected spots. 

Next week (Feb 13 onwards)

Mon morning and TC Gabrielle is likely to have undergone extra-tropical transition and be a large, low pressure system near the North Island. It’s SE movement will put a slight lid on wave heights (compared to a retrograding SW movement) but we’re still looking at very solid surf for Mon, in the 6-8ft range across most of the region. Winds will be out of the southern quadrant as the trough stalls out around Seal Rocks. Early mod/fresh S’lies are expected to tend lighter SE-ESE during the day so wind protection will need to be factored in.

SE winds continue through Tues under current modelling as a high pushes south of Victoria with troughy remnants in the Tasman Sea. Thats going to continue to restrict surf to more sheltered spots with strong E swell from ex TC Gabrielle continuing in the 6ft+ range. Again, windspeeds are high enough that you’ll need to seek some protection to find decent surface conditions.

By Wed we’ll be on the shoulder of this cyclone swell with a slow ramp down in size through the day. Expect a few 5-6ft sets in the morning, easing back to the 4-5ft range during the day. Winds should lighten up as high pressure moves into the Tasman- possibly seeing a morning land breeze before tending light SE-NE in the a’noon. S’ly fetches around troughs in the lower Tasman look to supply some short/mid period S swell in the 2-3ft range during Wed, opening up peaky beachbreak options in conjunction with the easing E swell.

Through the rest of next week we’ll see a mixed bag of easing, residual E-E/SE swell from what leftover fetch protudes off the west coast of the North island and likely some NE windswell possibly as early as Friday as the high drifts across the Tasman and N’ly winds increase off the NSW coast in response to an approaching frontal system. 

We may see some S swell from this front as it pushes into the Tasman early week 20/2 but it’s too early have any confidence in size or specifics.

Check back Mon for the latest and good luck negotiating this upcoming cyclone swell.

Have a great weekend!