Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 23rd Sep)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Fun feftover NE swell Sat AM, with a  window of good winds before S’ly change
• Slight kick in short period S swell Sat PM, holding into Sun
• Small pulse in E/SE swell later Sun, holding into Mon, with light winds
• Small kick in NE windswell Tues PM, wth clean leftovers Wed AM
• Low now expected to form in the Tasman with sizey S swell building Thurs and persisting through next weekend- stay tuned for updates

Recap

NE windswell has been in the water since Wed, although size and quality have both been a bit meh. Yesterday saw size in the 2-3ft range but with NE, almost E/NE at times winds, it was a low quality affair. Today has seen size inch up a notch with size generally around 3ft, and continuing NE winds, albeit with a lighter flow through the morning. Nothing sensational, but definitely surfable.

Bit meh, but enough for a fun surf

This weekend (Sep 24-25)

A few tweaks to the weekend F/cast as our wicked troughy pattern continues. The small low which hived off the trough line, off the NENSW Coast today meanders down the Tasman, holding some fun levels of NE swell.

A S’ly change generated by a front and trough moving up past Tasmania today now looks a little more delayed. 

That should offer a more generous window of NW-W/NW winds through Sat morning before winds tend SW through S.

Expect fun surf from the NE, in the 2-3ft range, easing a notch through the day.

S’ly quarter winds will be with us Sun morning, with a brief period of W to SW winds at the usual locations. Those winds will lie down through the day, and tend to variable sea breezes in the a’noon, as the trough system, quickly moves away through the Tasman. There’ll be a small mixed bag on offer Sunday. Small amounts of E/NE swell from the remnants of the low moving down from the sub-tropics, traces of short period S swell and some small E/SE swell from a Cook Strait fetch through Fri. That will add up to some small peaks in the 2ft range, likely 2-3ft in the a’noon at exposed beaches. Nothing special but with surfably fun options.

Next week (Sep 26 onwards)

Another troughy start to the week so factor in error margins for wind forecasts as they swirl around in the troughy soup. 

Small surf Mon, continuing the mixed bag with slight levels of S swell, and E/SE swell should hold surf in the 2ft range, with an interior trough seeing winds switch to the NW with NE seeabreezes.

The N’ly flow feeding into the trough ramps up through Tues, producing another round of NE windswell. Expect small surf Tues morning with increasing N’lies generating 2-3ft of windswell through the a’noon.

The trough is expected to move offshore sometime overnight Tues, or early Wed (timing is rubbery, we’ll finesse on Mon) somewhere off the South Coast, or Gippsland Coast. That should generate offshore winds Wed with small leftovers from the NE.

Models are now starting to firm on quite a significant swell producing system as the low moves offshore and a strong high moving all south of the Bight offers a supporting pressure gradient squeeze on the Western flank of the low (see below). 

At present we are looking at gales developing off the Gippsland coast late Wed, with a rapid rise in S swell through Thurs, provisionally getting up into the 4-5ft range at S facing beaches, bigger 5-6ft on the Hunter. 

A slow moving large fetch of S’ly winds then moves through the lower Tasman later next week. We’ll finesse sizes and timing on Mon but size in the 5-6ft range with S’ly winds looks very likely. 

Another inland system moving across NSW into next weekend is a wildcard as far as winds go,  even potentially forming a new surface low offshore early in the week 3/10. 

Usual caveats apply though in this period of enhanced troughiness- check back for updates Mon, we’re likely to see serious revisions.

Until then, have a great weekend!