Unfortunately, the timing of the southerly change expected early Saturday is not favourable for Victorian surfers.
That fetch will be positioned too far south for CQ and as a result of that we’ll see mostly tiny surf next week.
By mid week the trough of low pressure in the Tasman is expected to be moving southwards towards the NSW south coast.
We’ve got good model agreement now that through Mon we’ll see a deep trough develop from the Coral Sea down to a terminus somewhere on the MNC to lower North Coast with good odds we will see a surface low develop at that terminus.
We’ve got good model agreement now that through Mon we’ll see a deep trough develop from the Coral Sea down to a terminus somewhere on the MNC to lower North Coast with good odds we will see a surface low develop at that terminus.
The initial swells will be generated by overlapping fronts tracking through the Southern Ocean, whereas the large pulse will be courtesy of a rapidly deepening cut-off mid-latitude low at the tail end of the frontal sequence.
Friday should see similar conditions for most of the day ahead of a late SW change, but with building size from a much stronger fetch pushing through the Southern Ocean, the strongest part of which is contained with the associated polar low.
Weaker pressure gradients are now in the Coral Sea, as the synoptic pattern takes a pause in between dominant high pressure systems.
Friday’s swell increase will start off undersized, with the biggest waves expected at the end of the day.
Next week still looks dynamic with potential for a deep trough or low in the Tasman, although we are going to have to play it day by day due to poor model to model and run to run consistency.
