Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Fri 3rd June)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Fun easing S'ly swell this weekend
• Tiny/flat Monday, small flukey pulse possible Tues
• Solid S'ly swell Wed, large sometime Thurs/Fri
• Very large S'ly swell next weekend
• Entire period with offshore winds, fresh at times

Recap

Fun S’ly swells provided 3-4ft waves at south facing beaches on Thursday, ahead of a strong S’ly swell this morning that reached 6-8ft at south facing beaches, even the odd bigger set reported at some of the reliable reefs. Conditions have been clean with offshore winds. 

Still some long, guttered lines pushing into the Cronulla region this evening

This weekend (June 4-5)

We should see plenty of fun surf on offer for Saturday on the backside of today’s pulse, with today’s energy easing steadily from the get-go.

Size should manage an inconsistent 3-5ft at reliable south swell magnets early on (upper end of this size range across the Hunter) but expect a foot or two less by the afternoon. It’ll remain clean with moderate westerly winds. Expect smaller surf at beaches with less southerly exposure. 

We’ll see the wind veer more NW then N/NW into Sunday which will favour south facing beaches. By this time the swell will have lost even more size, perhaps 2-3ft at the swell magnets and smaller elsewhere, continuing to ease through the day. So, make it early.

Next week (June 6 onwards)

Sunday’s NW quadrant wind trend will be related to an advancing frontal progression across the south-eastern corner of the country, associated with an amplifying Long Wave Trough, and eventually a classic negative SAM (i.e. Southern Annular Mode).

Winds will swing to the west at strength early Monday morning, however the storm track will still remain outside of our swell window at this time. Gale to storm force winds will be present through eastern Bass Strait - a common source of flukey south swells - but the wind direction will be W thru’ W/NW here so I’m doubtful we’ll see any spread of energy up the coast at first. 

So, expect tiny conditions to kick off the working week. 

Overnight Monday will see the eastern Bass Strait fetch finally align W then W/SW, which should assist in pushing up some south swell, but a secondary fetch rounding the Tasmanian corner will also contribute some energy. 

I’m not confident on the specifics, but there’s a reasonable chance for blustery 2-3ft sets at south facing beaches at some point during Tuesday, possibly up to 3-4ft across the Hunter, though it’ll likely be a weird, directional, inconsistent swell that’ll bypass all but the most reliable swell magnets. Keep your expectations low. 

A little more consolidation in the broadscale system (as it moves into the Tasman Sea) on Tuesday should boost wave heights on Wednesday, probably into the 4-5ft range at south facing beaches by the afternoon but likely nudging 6ft+ across the Hunter and other reliable south swell magnets. It could be undersized early though. And beaches not open to the south will be a lot smaller. 

The real juice looks to arrive later in the week and into the weekend.

The Long Wave Trough appears to stall across the Tasman Basin, slingshotting a series of powerful polar lows around its western flank, aligned really well through the state’s south swell window (see below).

This should generate large overlapping south swells from late Thurs Fri (6ft, maybe 6-8ft south facing beaches) ahead of a really large south swell over the following weekend that could easily push 10-12ft at the deepwater reefs and surrounds 

Even better, conditions are looking favourable with generally moderate to fresh W/SW tending SW winds, thanks to the slow moving position of the Long Wave Trough. 

And beyond that we’re looking at more Southern Ocean fronts offering a steady supply of pulsey, elevated south swells through the following week. 

More on that in Monday’s update!