Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 20th Apr)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• S'ly swell behind a S'ly change sometime Wed (prob PM), holding Thurs
• Solid E/NE swell building late Sat, peaking Sun, light winds
• Intermittent southerly swell for most of the forecast period
• Stronger long period S swell Mon next week and Thurs, stay tuned for updates

Recap

Plenty of swell energy yesterday from the E mostly, maintained surf in the 3ft range, with a few bigger 3-4ft reports from more exposed stretches of coast. Conditions were clean through the morning with light W to NW winds. Today has just eased back a notch, with sets becoming more inconsistent, though still in the 3ft range when they come and clean under pre-frontal W to NW winds. All in all, another nice period of Autumn surf and conditions. 

East swell continues with delectable Autumn conditions

This week (Apr 20 - 22)

No great changes from Mondays f/cast notes. The remnants of a trough which drifted off the West Coast of the North Island have maintained E swell with a boost in size expected through Wed a'noon. A trough is now creeping up the NSW Coast bringing a stiff S/SW to S’ly change, with a parent low well to the South of Tasmania.

Further out in the South Pacific, well to the NE of the North Island, the remnants of the long trough line through the eastern swell window, have deepened, with a broad fetch of E/NE to E winds now activated. 

Behind this busy little synoptic pattern a monster high is tracking into the Bight. That will build a summer-style looking ridge along the coast (stronger in the North) through the medium term.

Looking at the rest of the working week and you’ll want to get in early Thurs morning with the morning SW breeze. There’ll be a mixed bag of easing E swell and shorter range S swell with both sources topping out around 3ft at exposed breaks. Surf increases through the a’noon, with the front pushing into the Tasman now looking a notch stronger than it did Mon. That will push S facing breaks up into the 3-4ft range, bigger 4-5ft on the Hunter but conditions will deteriorate as S’ly winds kick up, especially from lunch-time onwards.

Friday will be marred by SE winds, as the large high ridges in behind the Thursdays cold front. The ridge now looks to form further south, impacting more of the Southern NSW coastline. There’ll be a brief period of lighter winds during the morning- especially north of the Harbour- but they won’t last long and exposed S facing coastlines will struggle from the get go. There’ll be plenty of swell in the water with a mix of longer period S swell and shorter range S/SE swell from the frontal activity in the Tasman. This will see surf hold in the 4ft range at S exposed breaks, but smaller surf will be on offer at the more sheltered Bays out of the SE wind. By the a’noon, the ridge starts to slacken and winds will tend more E’ly- making an a’noon work session in mixed up surf available for the keen.

This weekend (Apr 23 - 24)

Still on track for some nice waves this weekend. 

Winds look light both days with the ridge moving north and light pressure gradients across the region seeing land and sea breezes both days. 

South swell trains make up the majority of the energy Sat morning. With light offshore breezes expect size in the 3-4ft at S facing beaches, with bigger surf on the Hunter. Through the a’noon we should see a few sets from the E as the swell trains generated from the fetch to the NE of the North start to make landfall. It’s running slightly later than indicated Mon so keep expectations low but by close of play we should see some 3ft sets across exposed stretches late Sat, under light E’ly breezes.

The Autumnal mixed bag continues Sun. New long period S swell fills in during the day, along with the mid-period E and some mid period S swell generated from the active storm track through the lower Tasman. Those intersecting swell trains should make for classic peaky conditions across the Beachies. Size will remain in the 3-4ft range across open stretches, with some bigger sets likely at S facing magnets through the a’noon. Light breezes are expected all day so it’s definitely a day where one, two or even three surfs are on the cards if you’ve got an open program.

Next week (Apr 25 onwards)

We’ll start next week with a strong pulse of long period S swell. The storm activity below the continent reaches a peak through Fri/Sat and although most of the fetch is zonal and poorly aimed at the East coast the windspeeds in the fetch and sheer size of the storm look to send a solid pulse our way. It will also be operating on a highly acitvated and energised sea state.

The ridge remains slack across Southern NSW into early next week so winds remain light, with good odds for a land breeze before light E to SE winds kick in. Sets in the 3ft range at S facing beaches should kick to 4ft during the day, with known swell magnets like the Hunter Coast seeing bigger 4-5ft surf during the day, possibly with some 6ft sets. 

This pulse backs down through Tuesday with light winds- look for 3-4ft leftovers early, easing during the day at S exposed breaks.

By mid next week the dominant high moves into the Tasman, weakening as it does so and becoming elongated. That will reduce the blocking power and ridge building potential along the Southern NSW Coast, and maintain a light flow, with a tendency for N’ly winds to develop later next week.

Surf-wise the activity from the S will keep the southern swell window active through to the end of next week. The storm system becomes slow moving and more meridional (N-S) as to tracks under the South Island which sends another pulse of long period S/SE well our way, expected Thurs next week, in the 3-5ft range at S facing beaches. 

S swell then eases back to end the next working week, with light winds.

Longer term and summer-style E’ly winds through the Northern Tasman and Coral Sea should see a small regimen of E/NE swell start to build later next week and into the weekend 30/31 of April.

Check back Wed and we’ll see how that is shaping up as well as take a last look at the weekend ahead.

See ya then.