Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 4 Mar)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Plenty of strong E swell Sat, with light morning winds, tending NE through the day
• Slow and slight easing of E swell into Sun with a S'ly change due, SW winds likely early
• Plenty of E swell into Mon, with a late kick in strong S swell
• Mix of S and E swell Tues, with an even stronger pulse of S swell PM
• Very large S to S/SE swell Wed, with strong S'ly winds
• Slow easing of S swell Thurs into Fri with easing winds
• Quieter weekend ahead next weekend, stay tuned for details

Recap

Wild week this week as a low formed in the trough line and steamed down the NSW coast. This Easterly trough low generated large surf with 10ft+ surf yesterday and strong S/SE to SE winds, suitable only for the most protected and novelty spots. Today has eased a notch into the 8ft range, still overpowering most spots and with water quality severely impacted by floodwater through most of the region. Tons more action this weekend and next week. Expect a condensed f/cast today due to impaired communications, with a return to normal service on Monday.

Still very large in Sydney today

This weekend (Mar 5-6)

No shortage of E swell this weekend, although at slightly more settled levels than the last 48hrs. 

Sat will see plenty of size in the 6ft range, holding through the day.

With high pressure straddling New Zealand and the remnant of the trough lingering near the Mid North Coast we’ll see a light N’ly flow through there morning, with good odds for a light NW breeze for most of the region.

That will tend to light/mod NE breezes through the day.

Sunday now firms on an early morning wind change from the S. That marks the emergence of another major system, as the remnants of the trough/low get re-energised by another upper disturbance being pushed Eastwards by a high in the Bight. More on this later it’ll generate heaps of swell next week once it spins up.

For now, Sunday will see more E swell, in the 5-6ft range through the morning, easing back a notch or two during the day. Expect an early SW flow, with winds tending S’ly through the day. Winds are likely to tend more SE north of Sydney on the Hunter/Central Coast during the day. There should be good options at protected spots, water quality notwithstanding.

Next week (Mar7 onwards)

E swell chugs away into next week as medium range fetches in the South Pacific window continue to supply incoming swell trains.That will see E swell hold in the 4-5ft range Mon. An initial pulse of S swell generated by the trough and a front sweeping up from Tasmania Sun/Mon will see surf build from the S in the a’noon, with size up into the 4-5ft range overlapping the E swell.

That fetch dissipates quickly on Tues, but a new low is expected to rapidly deepen off the Sydney coast on Tues, with gales developing off the coast. That’s likely to see a rapid rising S swell later Tues with size quickly ramping up into the 8ft range through the a’noon along with strong S’ly winds.

Low deepening off the coast from Sydney early next week, brings large S to S/SE swell

Size builds further into Wed, likely into the 8-10ft range from the S. With fresh S’ly quarter winds, it’ll be a day for  the most protected spots only.

Size then slowly eases through Thurs, with plenty of size still expected, as the low slides away to the SE, towards the South Island. We’ll be looking at 6ft surf from the S/SE, with E swell still in the mix in the 3-4ft range. Winds will ease through the day, though stay from the S to SE.

Easing surf then runs from Fri into the weekend with a mix of S and long range E swells. We’ll dial in those specifics when we come back Mon, but a high moving near Tasmania maintains a weak ridge up the NSW coast. Perhaps by next weekend we may see an offshore flow in the morning.

Wow, what a tempestuous start to Autumn!

Check back Mon for a full update and have a great weekend!