Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 19th Jan)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Punchy short range S to S/SE swell building Wed, tending SE and likely peaking Thurs and extending into the rest of the week before easing with SE winds
• Smaller E/SE swell Sat, slowly easing with E/SE winds 
• Easing surf Sun, with lighter E'ly winds, possibly offshore early
• Small E swells Mon-Wed next week with light N'ly winds
• Slightly bigger inconsistent E swell pulse Thurs with light N'ly winds
• Looks like a quiet period ahead as tropics becomes less active

Recap

Strong leftover E swell was in the water yesterday with most spots reporting 4-5ft surf with a few outliers seeing 6ft sets. Fresh SSW to S’ly winds developed during the day, confining clean waves to more sheltered spots. Size has declined this morning as the E groundswell ebbs away with some 3ft sets remaining, and fresh S’ly winds again confining clean surf to protected surf spots. Short range S to S/SE swell is now on the build as a dominant high and coastal trough combine to direct plenty of SE wind towards the coast. This pattern will be with us into the end of the week, slowly breaking down over the weekend. Details below. 

Still some strong sets yesterday from Ex TC Cody

This week (Jan 19-21)

A classic Summer blocking pattern is now setting up, with a slow moving high drifting well south of Victoria and a series of troughs interacting with a strong high pressure ridge which has reached Central NSW and is now building into more sub-tropical regions. This ridge/trough combo is developing a broad windfield through the Central Tasman, which is also migrating northwards through the cast period. This set-up will dominate local winds and swell production for the rest fo the week, wth a few small traces of longer period S/SE swell also on the mix a from a deep southern low which is aimed up more at New Zealand targets.

Short term and the rest of the working week will be marked by fresh SE winds, so dealing with those winds will be the first order of business to find a rideable wave. Expect strong winds tomorrow, possibly easing a notch into the later a’noon. Size is expected in the 4-5ft range, likely bigger 6ft on the Hunter coast, but it’s short/mid period SE swell so don’t expect too much refraction into more sheltered spots, which will be significantly smaller.

Size eases down a notch or two Fri, with winds also backing down although remaining mod to fresh SE. Expect a window of lighter winds early morning but there’ll be plenty of leftover bump and lump on it so keep expectations low. Size in the 3-4ft range, backing down through the day, with some longer period S to S/SE swell offering up 2ft sets. To be honest it’ll be hard to discern these swell trains in amongst the general sea state and dominant short period swell.

This weekend (Jan 22 - 23)

No great change to the weekend f/cast. If anything, the blocking pattern looks slightly more durable and slower to break down which means the SE flow will be a bit more persistent compared to Monday’s notes.

There’s a slim chance of a morning land breeze Sat, slightly more chance Sun, especially north of the Harbour, where mesoscale effects are greatest. Otherwise, expect light/mod SE winds both days, tending more E’ly on Sun a’noon.

Sat sees SE swell persisting at lower levels with size in the 3ft range, easing back to the 2-3ft range during the day. 

Sunday starts in the 2ft range with a slight bump possible in the a’noon as the proximate SE fetch gets a little boost during the day. 

Nothing amazing but workable beachbreaks are on offer if you aren’t too fussy about quality.

Next week (Jan 24 onwards)

Much quieter week on the radar next week , with a few small E swell sources keeping things ticking over.  Blocking high pressure drifts NE into the Tasman Sea Mon, then towards New Zealand by Tuesday.

That sees lighter winds become established Mon, leading to a light N’ly flow into Tues and Wed.

A trough of low pressure retrogrades SW back from North of the North Island later this weekend, tracking from near Norfolk Island down into North Island latitudes (see below). It’s quite a compact and mobile fetch so swell production is not expected to be anything amazing. 

We’re looking at a few days of small peaky beachbreaks, with size in the 2-3ft range with light onshore winds. Likely tending to morning land breezes. 

Tuesday is likely to see a slight bump into the 3ft range.

With Wednesday dipping back into the 2-3ft range.
These numbers are provisional and dependent on how the small retrograding trough behaves so expect some finessing of details on Fri.

A slightly longer period E swell pulse is expected Thursday generated by a more distant fetch which is expected to chug away in the South Pacific later this week and into the weekend. This fetch is well to the SE of Fiji in Tongan latitudes so expect a Lully, inconsistent swell with some 3ft sets, likely to persist into Fri, with a regime of light N’ly winds offering up fun conditions for beachbreaks.

Longer term and a complex trough system moves into Victoria at the end of next week, becoming slow moving and trapping a N’ly flow along the Central NSW coast. At this stage it doesn’t look like much of a swell producer and if it does we’ll be looking at an episode N’ly windswell into next weekend.

Other than that, the tropics looks to be in a more dormant phase than it has been since before Xmas, suggesting a period of small, more typical summer surf in the region into the end of January.

Check back Fri for the latest update.