Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 31st Dec)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Small, NE windswell on the cards for New Years weekend, slight muscling up later Sun from the E/NE with NE winds
• Steep increase in muscular E/NE swell Mon, likely peaking later Mon with light E'ly winds
• Strong E/NE swell at slightly lower levels Tues, slowly easing through the a'noon. Light winds early, S'ly change expected in the AM, with winds tending SE during the day
• Fun sized E swell persists Wed/Thurs with light winds
• Uptick in E swell possible Fri as low retrogades back to coast, with uncertain wind outlook
• Back to small surf next weekend

Recap

Not much surf on offer to round out 2021. A small signal of mostly NE windswell supplied surf in the 1-2ft range yesterday. It’s bumped up slightly today with some 2 footers around, tidally affected early when conditions were cleanest under light NW to NNW winds. Winds have now swung NE, offering up some rideable NE windswell at the usual spots to end the year. Much juicier developments now approaching rapidly in the near future. Details below.

Small surf, bluewater. Fun in the sun.

This weekend (Jan 1 - 2)

We’ll all be watching the tropical low steaming down the QLD coast this weekend but actual surf for the Central NSW region will be modest for the New Years weekend. 

New Years Day will see more of the same NE pattern, with lightest winds early and more tidally affected, weak NE windswell. Topping out at around 2ft at breaks exposed to that swell direction. Local windswell will likely reach a daily maxima in the later a’noon after winds have been blowing all day, but the increase will be marginal and probably not worth organising a day around.

Sunday sees a slight change in swell direction to the E/NE as the cradling fetch for the tropical low begins to offer up an “entree” for the main swell. This will be modest, 2ft, bumping up a half notch later in the a’noon with the possibility of some 2-3ft sets at the more reliable magnets for that swell direction. Winds similar for Sat: N to NE , freshening in the a’noon. Keep a watch on surf through Sun a’noon, with low expectations.

Next week (Jan3 onwards)

While there is still a bit of model variance the broad scale pattern is clear enough to make a high confidence call on Mon seeing a significant pulse of E/NE groundswell across the region. This will be generated by an intensification of the low as it tracks past the Fraser Coast, and becomes a “sub-tropical gale force” low. Gales to severe gales along the eastern flank will be well aimed at NSW targets through Sun.

That sees surf a bit undersized early- in the 3-4ft range- before much more powerful longer period E/NE swell builds into the 4-6ft range. A few bigger 8ft sets can’t be ruled out at some of the more exposed breaks. This is due to the presence of storm force winds around the core of the low, which although compact can be expected to really turbo-charge swell production. 

 Expect plenty of juice and water moving around. Conditions won’t be perfect, a light E’ly breeze is expected, but the size and strength of the swell should over-ride that, with plenty of options across the region, albeit a bit scuffed up by the breeze.

Tuesday maintains solid surf from the low in the 4-6ft range, slightly down off Monday’s peak with just a very slow easing trend in place. The low is expected to become semi-stationary somewhere off the North Coast, with a slow dissipating expected. That will see a consequent slow roll-off in size through the f/cast region. 

Winds will likely be an issue Tues. Lighter S’ly early, tending mod SE through the day. A morning SW flow is likely north of the Harbour. Plenty of size in the sheltered Bays due to the swell direction. By the a’noon, we see surf easing a little more noticeably, back into the 3-4ft range. 

Good surf looks set to continue through mid week. With the meandering low and weaker pressure gradients along the coast expected we should see a regime of light winds through Wed and Thurs. Swell from the E is expected to hold in the 3ft range, which will offer plenty of options across the region.

There’s still some question marks around Fri. Most models show another retrograding of the remnants of the low towards the NSW Coast later Wed/Thurs. That should see a slight bump in wave heights Fri, back into the 3-4ft range. GFS model then runs the low southwards, leaving a light and variable flow through Fri. EC has the low closer to the coast, with an E/NE wind expected. Lets hope for the latter, but after a week of waves there should still be options.

Longer term and surf looks much quieter next weekend. A potential tropical low, is well to the north and out of the NSW swell window. A weaker cold front Sat, may bring  a S’ly change Sun, but only a very modest increase in S swell. More likely Mon.

Have a great NYE and a surf-filled 2022. Seeya in the New Year!