Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Nov 26 )

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Late kick in new S swell Fri PM
• Large S swell on the cards for Sat, tending more SSE through the later a'noon, with fresh S to SSE winds
• SSE swell Sun, with S to SSE winds easing, surf easing Mon as it tends more SE
• Small leftovers from the SE Tues AM, with light winds
• Looks like a quiet period ahead for most of next week with small E'ly swell, stay tuned for revisions

Recap

Short period E’ly energy has declined a few notches through yesterday compared to mid-week highs. Size was mostly in the 2-3ft range, with early light breezes providing the cleanest conditions before winds kicked up from the NE. A S’ly change has arrived early across the region, reaching the Hunter Coast before first light. That signals the start of a new swell cycle as a trough forms off the South Coast. Surf is only small and wind affected now, with size expected to build through the a’noon, as fresh S’ly winds develop.

This weekend (Nov 27-28)

Just a few minor changes to be made to the weekend f/cast. The long, elongated trough line extending off the NSW Coast and angling in a NW/SE orientation towards New Zealand is now located a bit further north than modelled on Wed. Like the last trough system it’s now located more on the Mid North Coast. That doesn’t amount to much of a material change for most of the region with S to SSE winds south of the trough line still impacting the coast for the weekend. 

The short of it for Sat is plenty of swell from the S and winds from the same quarter in the strong wind range. With such a solid synoptic wind it’s unlikely there will be much chance of lighter winds inshore early, so expect S’lies in the 20-30 knot range during the day. Size is still looking like 6-8ft across most S exposed breaks, smaller in more sheltered areas and bigger 8ft on the Hunter. Options if you can get out of the wind.

Sunday offers slightly more options as swell direction becomes more favourable. Swell should clock around a little more towards SSE/SE and with periods up in the 10 second range there’s more potential for refraction into more sheltered spots. Exposed breaks are still likely to be in the 6ft+ range Sun morning before ramping slowly down during the a’noon. S’ly winds should also start to ease, as they tend more SSE/SE through the a’noon. Protected spots will still be the go to places but a few semi-protected options may become available as surf and wind moderate.

Next week (Nov29) and beyond

Pressure gradients should ease substantially to start the new week, with a weak high and diffuse area of troughy low pressure in the Central/Northern Tasman, extending up into the Southern Coral Sea. Light S’ly winds Mon are likely to have a land breeze component and with plenty of leftover SE swell still in the water, Mon morning is likely to be the pick of the week. Size in the 4ft range, slightly bigger 3-5 on the Hunter, continues a slow roll off in size during the day. Light S’lies are expected to trend to light E’ly breezes during the day. 

Tues is a mop up day with the last of the SE swell in the water. Expect a few sets in the 2-3ft range early, dipping right back into the sub 2ft range during the day. Light NE winds are expected through the day.

The rest of next working week becomes very insipid for the region. The weak troughy pattern in the Tasman Sea doesn’t look capable of generating any useful swell at this stage, and a series of broad, weak, disconnected wind fields in the Coral Sea and South Pacific are unlikely to be of sufficient strength to generate anything meaningful south of Seal Rocks, or Port Macquarie. 

That leaves a few days of tiny surf from Wed-Fri with a regime of light breezes. Good time to get other stuff done before Xmas.

Of course if one of the weak troughy areas intensifies we’ll have to rejig the f/cast on Mon.

Into next weekend and (4-5/12) an expected S’ly change late Fri, tied to a passing front and possible trough may result in some meaningful S swell. To be honest it looks flukey at this stage and this far out confidence is extremely low, so we'll just flag it for now.

Best we come back Mon and see how it’s shaping up.

Until then, have a great weekend.