Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Nov 17 )

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Easing S swells Thurs with freshening NE winds and small NE windswell PM
• Small NE windswell Fri, best before S'ly change
• Small mix of swells Sat with freshening NE winds
• Small bump in minor S swell Sun
• NE/ENE swell Sun PM, much bigger on the South Coast
• NE/ENE swell Mon AM, easing during the day
• Small amounts of S/SSE swell Tues/Wed
• Uncertain outlook continues for next week, check back Fri

Recap

S swell trains from a Tasman low with multiple cold fronts have been in the water since Mon a’noon. Around 3ft of S swell was in the water yesterday, bigger 3-4ft on the Hunter, with an early land breeze giving the best conditions before winds swung SE and blew out most locations. Generally crappy conditions have extended into this morning and surf is holding in the 3ft range at most S exposed breaks. High pressure moving over the region is expected to see winds drop out and begin a counter-clockwise rotation to the E/NE, before a couple of days of hard N’lies.

This week (Nov 17-19)

The remnants of the previous low pressure system  are now to the south, and crossing New Zealand, which means it’s swell generating potential for the region has now ceased. The strongest pulse of the swell is still propagating northwards up the NSW coast, with a slightly longer period and slightly better angle than the previous pulses, which have been a bit flukey. This is in the water now.

Weak high pressure is drifting out from the SE of the country to enter the Tasman Sea at time of writing. Weak fronts are below the country and an inland low is tracking across from WA, tied to the continuing pattern of interior troughiness which is associated with a developing La Nina pattern. This pattern, which has been with us for most of the last few weeks, is expected to see continuing small, flukey swells into the medium term.

Short term and the last pulse of S swell will have begun the fade out in the night-time hours, dropping back from peaks today into the 3ft range at S facing beaches, 3-4ft on the Hunter. Light N’ly winds early will enable S facing spots to be fully utilised before winds freshen from the N to NE through the a’noon, with minor levels of NE windswell building into the late a’noon as winds reach their diurnal maximum speeds. Expect S swell to fade out of the mix through the a’noon.

Friday sees NE windswell as the major swell train in the water, with 2-3ft surf at favourable beaches. Winds still look a bit tricky to call on Friday, as a weak coastal trough brings a S’ly change. Models are still struggling to resolve this short range feature so the timing  might need finessing. The gist of it is winds swinging NW, possibly W/NW before the change which occurs some time in the early/mid a’noon. If you’ve got some flexibility there may be a few fun, small waves on offer before the wind change but keep expectations low. 

This weekend (Nov 20-21)

Not a great deal on offer this weekend with only small, flukey swell sources to rely on. Sat looks tiny through the morning. Some very small weak NE windswell in the water, replaced by small, weak S swell generated by the trough exiting the coast Fri and forming a weak area of low pressure in the Tasman as it tracks East away from the coast during Sat. That should see wave heights struggle up into the 2ft range at the most reliable swell magnets, all under a light/mod onshore flow that will clock around from the S/SE to the E/NE during the day. Very uninspiring stuff, but probably just enough energy for a slide on the right board. 

Sunday sees a freshening N’ly flow as the inland low begins to approach the coast. Great news for farmers and the Murray-Darling basin as the moisture infeed into the low promises another round of useful rainfall west of the Divide. Not great news for surf though. 

Small amounts of S swell in the water early, below 2ft, more likely 1-1.5ft at the best swell magnets get over-lapped by NE windswell in the a’noon, which should build into the 2ft range. All under a regime of freshening N’ly winds.

A caveat to Sundays f/cast is the position of the low as it exits the coast. Currently that is expected on the Far South Coast, likely between Merimbula and Narooma. A strong E/NE/NE infeed into the low is expected to produce a much stronger E/NE swell on the Far South Coast, possibly up into the 4-5ft range. This is much more likely on the Gippsland Coast.

If the low exits the coast further north than modelled that zone of increased swell size will also migrate northwards. We’ll update in the comments if a major model change occurs, or otherwise finesse on Friday.

Next week (Nov22) and beyond

The interior low exits the coast Mon next week, driving W’ly winds across the region through the morning, expected to turn S’ly through the day as the low drifts into the Tasman, with S’ly winds on the western flank of the low. Unfortunately, there isn’t much strength to these winds, lacking high pressure support.

We should see some E through E/NE swell Mon morning, bigger the further south you are, from the infeed into the low. This is likely to be 2-3ft in the Sydney region, grading bigger down the South Coast, although you’ll need to be south of Ulladulla to really notice a big difference in size, where size is expected in the 3-5ft range. Small, local S swell fills in Mon a’noon, in the 2ft range, bigger 2-3ft at the most reliable swell magnets.

Small S to SE swell pads out Tues and Wed, from a weak fetch around the low which is expected to meander across the Tasman early next week. There isn’t much strength in the fetch but the wind vectors are well aimed, likely enough for some playful 2ft surf through both days. S’ly winds Tues, are expect to trend NE through the a’noon. 

From Wednesday onwards confidence in the weather models becomes extremely low as they struggle to resolve a troughy pattern. Some kind of elongated NNW/SSE angled trough-line off the NSW coast, extending sub-tropical latitudes is expected to form next week. This may form a small surface low Thurs, or drift off with a weaker S’ly change expected later next week. 

It looks weak and mobile so history suggests a cool bias is appropriate, with low surf potential expected.

Following that, a strong high at southerly latitudes is moving through the Bight suggesting a strong S’ly pattern possibly as early as next weekend.

Confidence is very low this far out, so we’ll keep monitoring and report back on Fri.