Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 12th July)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Steadily easing size Tues with light winds
• Extremely inconsistent SE groundswell Wed/Thurs, with light winds tending N'ly and freshening, then going NW
• Small surf Fri with a minor S'ly swell
• Tiny surf Sat
• Flukey S'ly swell Sun, easing Mon, with fresh offshore winds
• Small/mod S'ly swells for much of next week

Recap

Large windy surf peaked around the 10ft+ mark on Sunday. Conditiions were blustery Saturday as early SW winds (with smaller E’ly swells early) swung strong S’ly and the swell increased steadily. Size eased slowly through Sunday with much better conditions as winds became light. Today’s managed clean 4-5ft+ sets early on with light offshore winds and weak afternoon sea breezes. 

Amazing Sydney barrels on Sunday (photo Craig Brokensha)

This week (July 13 - 16)

Now that the weekend’s low has cleared our swell window, and the Tasman Sea is devoid is swell generating activity, we’re having to look further afield for swell prospects.

Tuesday will see a slow decline in E’ly swell from the current event, still 2-3ft+ at open beaches early (mainly north from Sydney) but a longer wait for the sets than the last few days. Size will then become smaller during the day.

Late afternoon (or more likely overnight Tuesday) the leading edge of several long period SE groundswells are expected to make landfall, originating from a complex series of polar lows well south and south-east of New Zealand over the weekend.

Despite the tricky swell source and the large travel distance, we should see intermittent 3ft+ sets at exposed spots throughout parts of Wednesday, possibly even into Thursday morning. But there will be extremely long breaks between waves - don’t be surprised if the ocean becomes near-flat for ten minute stretches. It's not a high confidence event so don't go planning any major surf activity around it.

Elsewhere, there’s not much new swell to look forward to. A small cut-off low south of Tasmania on Tuesday will generate a small, brief flush of south swell for late Thursday (South Coast) and Friday - but it’ll only favour south swell magnets and probably won’t top much more than an inconsistent 2ft+ at a handful of spots, with most locations remaining very small as the long range SE swell fades.

As for conditions, light winds on Tuesday and early Wednesday will gradually freshen from the north in the afternoon, trending NW into Wednesday ahead of a windy spell from Thursday onwards as a series of fronts push quite far north in latitude, bringing W/NW gales by late Friday.  

This weekend (July 17 - 18)

The weekend storm track looks dynamic but it’s all in the wrong position for Southern NSW. 

A strong frontal sequence across the SE corner of the country will be detached from polar latitudes - and thus reliable swell sources - so we’re looking at gusty W’ly tending W/SW winds across the region, but with no proper swell generation occuring in any of our usual southern swell windows. 

The only area of interest looks to be one of my favourite flukey swell sources - south-west gales exiting eastern Bass Strait. They probably won’t develop until late Saturday, so expect tiny residual surf all day, ahead of a possible kick in short range S’ly swell on Sunday, with ballpark 3ft sets at south swell magnets - a little bigger through the Hunter - but tiny elsewhere thanks to the acute direction.

More on this in Wednesday’s update. 

Next week (July 19 onwards)

Sunday’s local S’ly swell will ease early next week, and the long term guidance is suggesting a fairly bog standard frontal progression below the Tasman Sea through next week, providing standard winter south swells for much of the week, though nothing amazing.