Smaller waves mid week, another series of S swells later
Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by James Casey (issued Monday 19th April)
Best Days: Tuesday, Saturday
Outlook:
- Tuesday 3-4ft with reinforcing S swell offshore winds
- Wednesday brief S change with weak mix of SE swell and S wind swell
- Thursday smaller waves, 2ft, strong offshore winds
- Friday SW winds early 2ft waves
- Saturday longer period S swell to fill in, 3-4ft waves out of the S. Winds look OK
- Sunday easing S swell 2-3ft but with SE winds
- Monday SE windswell with longer period S swell to arrive by Tuesday morning
Recap
Across the board it was 4ft+ on Saturday and a bit smaller on Sunday, more like 3-4ft, with waves out of the S for the entire weekend.. There was a fair bit of discrepancy though. While some spots struggled to get much more than 3ft waves, just around the corner at a more exposed beach it was easily 4ft+. Meanwhile there were reports of 6-8 ft waves at south swell magnets north and south of Sydney on Saturday.
Winds stayed light and mostly offshore all weekend so really it was a nice weekend of waves as long as you could find a decent bank.
Today winds are offshore early with waves a little smaller than yesterday early on, more like 3ft again with larger waves at south swell magnets. A new pulse of south swell should arrive later this afternoon. Winds will stay light for most of the morning but swing around to the NE late in the day.
The new week
By Tuesday yet another long period pulse of S swell will fill in thanks to strong frontal activity in the Southern Ocean. Waves will jump up a smidge from today’s 3ft to 3-4ft with a bit of push. The Hunter will see a bit more size up around 4-5ft.
Winds will remain offshore for one more day with W/NW winds keeping things clean throughout the day.
The swell from the low in the Tasman that was looking to be a chance of providing a bit of a SE pulse isn’t looking great. It is too fast moving and all in all just too weak to provide anything of substance. Any swell it does provide will be discernible under the stronger longer period S swell.
Wednesday will see a S change move through early with winds remaining out of the SW early and swinging around to the S/SW later in the day. The Hunter will see a period of W winds around dawn but by mid morning it’ll be more SW.
Waves will be smaller as the longer period stuff comes to an end. A weak swell from the low in the Tasman will provide an E/SE pulse before a small S wind swell becomes the dominant source later in the day. All in all it’ll be small and windy on Wednesday, 2ft at S swell magnets but bumpy.
The S wind swell will continue to be the main source of swell on Thursday but with offshore winds it’ll be a nicer day of small waves.
Friday will see small waves, around 2ft, out of the S continue with stronger SW winds early giving way to lighter more variable winds in the afternoon. We could see a S swell show up late but at this stage it’s looking more like arriving on Saturday from a little burst of winds out of eastern bass strait. 
The weekend and beyond
A longer period S swell will move in on Saturday morning up around the 3-4ft mark. Again there’ll be a range of wave heights depending on your exposure to S swells. Southern corners will be smaller and S facing beaches bigger. This swell will originate from frontal activity in the Southern Ocean so expect it to be a little lully. Winds look to be SW early before becoming light and variable out of the SE later in the day.
The swell will ease into Sunday and linger around the 2-3ft mark with a fresh SE breeze building throughout the day.
These SE winds will deliver a shorter period wind swell to the region on Monday before a stronger, longer period swell moves in on Tuesday thanks to yet another strong front pushing up to the east of Tassie. With strong S winds, it looks like conditions will be bumpy unless you are in a southern corner but it does look like waves will be a bit bigger than what we have seen for a week or so. Let’s keep an eye on it. Tune in on Wednesday for an updated forecast.
Comments
Why does the surf forecast never line up with the forecaster notes?
I wouldn't say never. It's an automated model and it seems to perform better with near shore activity as opposed to long distance high period swells. It is 1 tool, not the be all and end all. I glance at it to get an idea if there are any significant weather events across the longer term forecast.
1 foot’s a bit different than 4 foot
I’d say the model that generates the swell tables is powered by hawaiian forecasting and call 1-2ft for what we call 4ft, swellnet guys leaves it as is so non-member dont get accurate forecasting and missout on the detailed notes... cant rely on the swell table anymore need to pay your membership
I pay my membership to get both reports
Professional swell analysis is worth it for great waves.... if you have flexi-time....
or learn to read weather maps
Inshore waves are a different size as the forecast is coming from live bouys 30 Km's off the coast. I generally look @ the MHL site with the Crowdy Head bouy being the closest to my surf breaks & depending on the swell direction & period I can usually call it swell wise but then of course other variables like wind & tide play their part too! I've been looking @ weather maps since I was a teenager, so many years pre internet to form my own opinion on what is happening surf wise! Even then mother nature can surprise me once I do a visual on the Tasman sea. Cheers!!!
This is an inherent problem with the Wave Watch III model not capturing certain swell sources well at all. That being zonal westerly fetches and S'ly swells into the Tasman Sea, and also SE swells from below New Zealand.
This is the initial raw data, hence we can't really tweak it to compensate for these swells as it'll over compensate for others. It's really annoying but shows the values of the Forecaster Notes.
Bargaining power Craig.
Politics next??
Ha! Selling the crappy lefts all day long ;)
Tasman sea has to be one of the trickiest and idiosyncratic ocean basins to forecast globally. Models have often got no clue.
Look at today as an exhibit A and some of the Newy Days.
the way SW swells bend back into the NSW coastline is incredible.
1 foot with the odd bigger one on the south coast late morning. But the water quality is back to A1, glorious :-)