Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 4th March)

Best Days: Friday: light morning winds, and a peaky mix of S'ly and NE swell. 

Recap: Monday’s fantastic long period S’ly swell eased quickly into Tuesday but was replaced with mid-range energy from a new source pushing east of Bass Strait (on Monday). Surf size reached 3-4ft at south facing beaches and light S’ly winds maintained reasonable conditions all day. Today has seen a new S’ly swell build across the region though it’s been a little slower off the mark than expected. The Port Kembla buoy has seen a spike in surf size from mid-late morning, but many beaches are yet to see much of an increase from the morning’s 2-3ft sets (though it is on the way up). Winds have also been up from the E/NE for much of the day so conditions haven’t been great. There's also a small distant E/NE swell in the mix, and some local windswell too.

Disjointed S'ly lines at Newcastle this afternoon

This week (March 5 - 6)

Although the new S’ly swell is lagging on its forward flank, I can’t see any reason to change the forecast from Monday's notes.

Core winds within the primary fetch were good, and the fetch length was impressive, the only negative was its slightly off-axis alignment. But, we’ve seen good S’ly swells from less favourable systems in the past, and I still think we’re looking at some solid waves over the coming 24 hours. 

Unfortunately, local conditions won’t be very good on Thursday.

The latest model runs have slightly delayed the evolution of a surface trough (and eventual low) off the Far South Coast - in fact, the remains of ex-TC Esther - which means we’ll be under freshening NE winds all day. In fact, there’s an upside: they’re going to be stronger and broader, and should kick up around 3-4ft+ of NE swell by the afternoon (smaller earlier). Conditions just won’t be very good, that’s all.

As for the S’ly swell, most south facing beaches should see 3-5ft sets on Thursday though it’ll be smaller elsewhere. The Hunter may pick up a few stray bigger bombs.

The positive from Thursday’s poor conditions is that we’ll see a little more size (from the NE) into Friday as the trough moves off the coast, allowing morning winds to become light offshore, ahead of a return S’ly change into the afternoon. 

So, with the S’ly swell easing (2-3ft south facing beaches, easing) and the NE swell holding occasional 3ft+ sets early, easing to 2ft+ by the afternoon, there’ll be good waves through the first half of the day. After lunch you’ll have to tuck into a sheltered southern corner as the wind swings to the south.

As a side note, there’ll also be some distant E/NE swell in the mix (from a stationary fetch NE of New Zealand for the last week) though I’m not expecting any major size from it.

This weekend (Mar 7 - 8)

The weekend looks pretty average at this stage. 

The main reason is because of a broadening ridge of high pressure along the coast, in the wake of Friday’s trough. This will spread S/SE winds across most locations on Saturday, easing a little on Sunday but still likely to be problematic.

As for surf, there’s a couple of source on the cards. Friday’s NE and S’ly sources will ease, but we’ll see a fresh S’ly swell from a low pressure system developing at the southern extremity of Friday’s coastal trough, the remains of ex-TC Esther. 

This should build surf size into the 3ft range at south facing beaches. Core winds within this low are very strong but I don’t like its E/SE track, perpendicular to the swell window. So I’ll keep surf size capped from this region for now (unless the models slow it down by Friday). 

There’ll be a comparable level of short range S/SE windswell on offer too, from the local fetch.

We’ll also see inconsistent E/NE sets form the South Pacific source on Saturday, easing Sunday, though without any major size (occ 2ft+). 

A fourth swell source for the weekend is also developing off New Zealand’s West Coast right now, with a thin fetch of E’ly gales exiting Cook Strait likely to supply some small E’ly swell too. 

But, it all comes down to the winds, and right now I can’t see any windows of opportunity apart from a gradual improvement through Sunday. 

Let’s take a closer look on Friday. 

Next week (Mar 9 onwards)

Another high pressure system is expected to move into the Southern Tasman Sea early next week, reaffirming the coastal ridge and maintaining onshore winds across many regions for quite a few days (though, more likely in Northern NSW than Southern NSW).

The good news is that we’ll see a spread of E’ly swell across our coast as a result - nothing to get excited about but occasional 2-3ft sets are likely for two or three days, maybe longer. 

Monday should also see a continuation of S/SE swell from the low/trough combo (from its weekend position near New Zealand) but again, nothing spectacular is on the cards. 

See you Friday!