Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 29th November)

Best Days: Sun: still on target for a solid NE swell with winds probably veering offshore (confidence has decreased on the wind outlook, though the surf outlook remains strong). Mon: smaller but clean with light winds. Tues onwards: stacks of swell potential from the E and NE for the following week or more. 

Recap: Small residual E/NE swells and light variable winds have padded out the last few days.

Today’s Forecaster Notes are brought to you by Rip Curl. There’s more upwelling (and thus cold water temps) on the way - ward off the chills with an early Xmas wetsuit!

This week (Nov 28th - Dec 1st)

Looks like a prolonged spell of NE winds ahead.

Which - in addition to a building swell - means the recent plunges in sea temps will continue for the foreseeable future.

We’ll kick off Thursday much in the same vein as per today, with early light winds and small residual trade swells in the 1-2ft range. 

During the afternoon, winds will begin to freshen from the NE, beginning a ~60hr spell of nor’easters that will become quite strong through late Friday and the first half of the weekend.

Surf size should build from 2-3ft at NE facing beaches early Friday to 3-4ft by late in the day but quality will be quite limited due to the gusty cross-onshores. Expect smaller surf at south facing beaches, and through the northern Hunter. 

This weekend (Dec 2nd - 3rd)

We’re now starting to see some divergence across the model guidance, regarding the evolution of an approaching trough later Saturday.

It’s still quite likely that winds will veer NW on Sunday morning though confidence levels have dropped a little.

Regardless, we’re still looking at the same swell trend as discuss Monday - up into the 4-5ft range at NE facing beaches through Saturday and early Sunday before easing throughout Sunday. 

Surface conditions on Saturday won’t be great, thanks to the strong NE airstream, so Sunday is really your best day to put aside for surfing - I’ll update in the comments below as the model guidance updates this evening and again through tomorrow, but right now there’s a pretty good chance we’ll see winds swing offshore at some point, cleaning up the surf and delivering some punchy A-frames across most Southern NSW beaches.

A fresh though shallow S'ly change may push acros the South Coast into the afternoon too, with NE winds possibly returning to the Sydney/Hunter coasts after lunch, ahead of the change.

Let's take a closer look on Friday.

Next week (Dec 4th onwards)

With so much uncertainty about the passage of the weekend's trough, it’s hard to have confidence for the surf and wind outlook early next week. 

It’s most likely that we’ll be on a steady decline in NE swell throughout Monday, though there is still a chance for a brief return southerly swell originating from the trailing fetch behind the trough (if it clears into the Tasman Sea). Confidence is still only low on this event though. 

Otherwise, long term swell prospects still remain very active through our east and north-east swell windows, with a number of potential sources of quality swell. 

A series of easterly dips are expected to form northwest and north-east of New Zealand from the weekend onwards, and they’ll contribute south useful E/NE swell through the middle to latter part of next week (i.e. later Tues through Fri or Sat). 

Additionally, a redeveloping coastal trough along the East Coast is expected to create two primary regions for swell generation - a broad fetch off Southern NSW (similar to the event unfolding later this week) and a second area of interest off Southern Qld. Their extend and magnitude is not yet clear though. 

On top of this, there is also a suggestion that we could see a Tropical Cyclone develop mid-way between Vanuatu and the Solomon Islands mid-next week, which could bring about a NE swell for some parts of the East Coast later next week and into the weekend. 

Anyway, the overarching theme is that there’s an absolute bucketload of swell potential for the long term outlook period, so it looks like you’re going to remain pretty active for some time yet. More on this in Friday’s update.