Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 22nd November)

Best Days: Thurs: smaller surf with light winds. Sat/Sun: small rebuilding E/NE swell with mainly light winds Sat, freshening NE during Sun. Mon onwards: extended period of E/NE trade swell around 2ft. Possibly a bigger local NE swell around Wed.  

Recap: A fun E/NE swell delivered 3-4ft surf across the Southern NSW coast on Tuesday, with mainly light to  moderate onshore winds, occasionally variable. Size has eased back to 2-3ft this morning and 2ft today with a similar wind regime - periods of light variable winds, occasionally light to moderate onshore. 

Today’s Forecaster Notes are brought to you by Rip Curl.

This week (Nov 23rd - 24th)

Not much surf is expected for the rest of the week.

We’re now well and truly on the backside of our fun E/NE pulse, and residual energy will pad out most of Thursday and Friday. Size should manage 1-2ft+ and it’ll be quite tidally susceptible. If anything, expect the upper end of this size range Thursday, and the lower end on Friday, as we're essentially on the declining trend out of the E/NE.

The only area of interest to keep a watch on is the head of a broad but ultimately moderate-strength E’ly fetch, around the top of a Tasman high, feeding into a trough adjacent the East Coast. This is expected kick up wave heights from the E/NE on Saturday but we may see early forerunners late Friday, though it’s only likely to produce an increase in the order of a foot or so during the last few hours of the day at best.

I’ll update in the comments of these Forecaster Notes as more info comes to hand.

Winds will remain light to moderate NE over the next few days, occasionally variable through the morning though without a synoptic offshore it’ll be a little lumpy at times. 

This weekend (Nov 25th - 26th)

The weekend looks OK for some small fun waves though onshore winds are still a risk. 

The developing E/NE fetch in the Northern Tasman Sea will marginally bump up wave heights into Saturday, with an incrementally bigger increase due on Sunday - resulting from a small E’ly dip developing in the trough line east of SE Qld on Friday - though a lack of surface wind speed will keep wave heights on the smaller, weaker side of the coin.

At this stage we can expect 2ft, maybe 2-3ft sets at exposed NE facing beaches on Saturday, with a smidge more size on Sunday - perhaps a few plus sets at swell magnets. It'll be slow and laborious though and if the onshore crops up it'll more easily decimate wave quality compared to a strong swell. Expect smaller surf at south facing beaches and across the northern Hunter.

Winds will remain NE though Saturday should see generally light to moderate speeds at best, probably variable for much of the morning. Early Sunday morning should also see a variable period but we’ll see a strengthening NE trend into the afternoon as a new surface trough approaches from the west. 

Next week (Nov 27th onwards)

Our small, low confidence S’ly swell for Monday (from a trough SE of Tasmania over the weekend) has been wiped off the charts. As such we’ll continue to look to the east and north-east for long term swell prospects. 

The good news is that we’ve got plenty of activity expected through the Northern Tasman Sea, stretching out into the South Pacific. Active trades will keep most East Coast beaches humming for all of next week and the adjacent weekend, though Northern NSW will pick up the most size, with smaller surf expected south from Seal Rocks. 

Most open Southern NSW beaches should hover either side of 2ft for most of this period (originating from the trade swell) though at the same time, we'll still have many of the necessary ingredients required for a more prominent swell generating system to develop closer to our coast. 

Although the models aren’t in strong agreement right now, there’s a chance for a deepening trough to kick up a punchy NE swell mid-next week (centered around Wednesday) but I’ll provide more info on this in Friday’s update.