Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 15th November)

Best Days: Fri/Sat: peaky NE swell, though bumpy with onshore winds. Easing Sun with lighter winds. Mon/Tues/Wed: good E/NE swell with mainly light winds. 

Recap: Small residual swells for the last few days with light morning winds and moderate to fresh NE sea breezes. 

This week (Nov 14th - 17th)

No changes for the next few days.

Winds will slowly freshen from the NE from now until Saturday afternoon, and as a consequence wave heights will slowly build locally. 

NE facing beaches should pick up 2ft sets by Thursday afternoon, and 2-3ft by Friday afternoon, though quality will remain low under the persistent onshore conditions. Expect smaller surf at south facing beaches, and across the northern Hunter. 

This weekend (Nov 18th - 19th)

A peak in local NE swell is expected Saturday, though at the same time the Tasman Sea ridge will slowly weaken and thus local winds will gradually ease in strength. 

Saturday should manage 2-3ft+ sets at NE facing beaches through the morning, easing into Sunday. Winds will remain generally onshore E/NE both days but will ease in strength, and could swing light and variable at times on Sunday. However without a synoptic offshore it’ll remain wobbly through the lineup.

Also worth mentioning is the chance for an upwelling event (and therefore drop in sea temperatures) over the weekend due to the prolonged spell of NE breezes.

The much discussed new E/NE groundswell still isn’t due to arrive until overnight and into Monday, so expect wave heights to slowly abate throughout Sunday. In fact, the afternoon may see a small S’ly groundswell glance the coast and provide a few minor waves at south swell magnets (not worth working around though). 

Next week (Nov 20th onwards)

No changes to the outlook for early next week. Sunday's tiny late S'ly swell may persist through Monday but no great size is expected. 

The deepening E’ly dip over the coming days will form a broad low just north of New Zealand, though the fetch will mainly be aimed up into the Coral Sea. 

We’ll see plenty of E/NE swell filter into Southern NSW from this system, though it’ll be a short lived event compared to northern locations, and will also be smaller in size. 

Wave heights will build through Monday morning into the 4ft range at open beaches, and should persist into Tuesday before easing steadily through Wednesday. A slack pressure gradient resulting from a weak high pressure system in the Tasman Sea will maintain light winds across most locations, generally offshore through the mornings then onshore into the afternoons. 

Looking beyond this and a blocking pattern is expected to remain in place for the rest of the week, and although the E/NE swell will ease rapidly from Wednesday onwards, we’ll see small to moderate levels of mid range E/NE swell rebuilt later in the week and through the weekend from the northern flank of a Tasman high. 

As such, there’s no shortage of surf expected for the long term. In fact, long range modelling is showing a deepening coastal trough early in the following week that could generate a significant local NE swell around Tuesday 28th/Wed 29th November. More on this in Friday’s update.