Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 6th November)

Best Days: Tues: plenty of south swell though winds will probably spoil the party. Wed: strong building S'ly groundswell, though winds won't be perfect. Thurs: moderate S'ly swells easing, with light winds. Fri: smaller S'ly swells with early light winds. 

Recap: The weekend delivered a mix of south and east swells though onshore winds made for pretty ordinary conditions. Today a NE swell built to 3ft this morning, and has increased further this afternoon as a deep Tasman Low developed off Southern NSW. Winds have been fresh and gusty from the N/NE through the morning but we’re now seeing offshore winds develop behind a series of intense thunderstorms, so conditions are improving quickly.

Improving mid-afternoon conditions at Shark Island lefts

This week (Nov 3rd - 6th)

The developing Tasman Low looks very impressive on paper but it’s actually going to move quickly to the east. As such, it’ll have a relatively low level of influence on our surf potential from Tuesday onwards - compared to what might otherwise be expected, given likely core winds strengths - though a series of strong fronts moving up from polar latitudes will contribute a couple of days of solid south swell through the middle of the week.

Tuesday morning will see an initial early peak in S/SE swell from the Tasman Low, it’ll ease through the day but a secondary S’ly swell from a front pushing off the South Coast in the early hours of the morning will arrest this downwards trend into the afternoon. 

Confidence on precise wave heights is not high; we may see 40-50kts around the core of the low (which is a cricual ingredient for very large waves) but the fetch length will be very short so I'm not actually expecting a great deal of relative size. South swell magnets may see some 4-5ft sets (with bigger 5-6ft bombs through the Hunter) but there’ll also be a fresh S’ly breeze on hand. A handful of locations may see early SW winds. Expect marginally smaller surf into the afternoon from the secondary south swell. 

Today’s NE swell will rapidly ease through Tuesday but early morning may see some 2ft+ sets at remaining beaches, which is probably a similar size as we’ll see from the refracted south swell. 

Wednesday will see a longer period S’ly swell push through the morning across Sydney beaches (earlier down south) and although much less consistent, should maintain anywhere between 4ft and maybe 6ft at south facing beaches. It’s more likely that we’ll see this size range through the afternoon (than the morning), and beaches not exposed to the south will be much smaller (though, the Hunter should see bigger waves). As Tuesday’s front clears off the coast, winds will rapidly ease and tend lighter SW at many locations but it’s likely that exposed locations will remain lumpy.  

Further southerly swells, though smaller in size, are then expected through Thursday and Friday - all originating from the same part of the swell window but from marginally weaker, less favourably aligned fetches. South facing beaches should still see 3-5ft sets early Thursday and 3ft+ sets early Friday but expect less size and consistency throughout the days. Again, surf size wil be smaller at beaches not directly open to the south, but we may also see occasional bigger bombs through the Hunter. 

As for conditions to finish the week, Thursday will see light variable winds and sea breezes under a weak high pressure system, whilst Friday should see light offshores early ahead of a moderate to fresh S/SE change in the afternoon. 

This weekend (Nov 7th - 8th)

Friday’s late change will be linked in with a continuing succession of polar fronts below the Tasman Sea.

They’l be poorly aimed for our coast but will still be strong enough to generate small to moderate levels of southerly groundswell over the weekend. The models are a bit all over the shop at the moment, and have been up and down on size for Saturday though I think its a slight overcall at the moment (4-6ft Saturday morning across Sydney’s south facing beaches? Erm, unlikely IMO). 

However, we should see 3-4ft+ at south swell magnets and a little more through the Hunter on Saturday. Size will ease through the afternoon and into Sunday but early morning should still manage 2-3ft at south facing beaches. 

Local winds will remain general onshore under a ridge of high pressure, but should be sufficiently weak enough to allow for OK conditions through the mornings. So, certainly not epic but not that bad either.

Next week (Nov 9th onwards)

Nothing major showing on the cards at this stage, just a slow easing southerly swell regime.