Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 3rd November)

Best Days: Plenty of surf each day though local winds will probaly spoil the party in general. I like the look of Monday the most, for a peaky NE swell with a temporary NW wind. Tuesday could be very large out of the south, but windy; a better quality S'ly swell is due Wed/Thurs though again winds are tricky.

Recap: Thursday saw large S’ly swells through the morning, in fact the biggest waves probably occurred overnight following a late rapid increase on Wednesday evening. Surf size was around the 6ft+ mark at exposed spots and north of 8ft through the Hunter at times, but smaller elsewhere because of the swell direction, and sized eased into the afternoon. Winds were early SW but then swung moderate SE during the day. Today we’ve seen a rapid easing of south swell (early 3ft sets south facing beaches) but there’s also a distant undercurrent of building E’ly swell, with sets starting to push 2-3ft. Winds were light NW early but are moderate N/NE now. A S'ly change is approaching from the South Coast.

This weekend and beyond (Nov 2nd onwards)

*today’s notes will be brief as Craig’s away*

A peaky mix of distant E’ly and leftover S’ly swell will pad out Saturday. Winds look a bit dicey in the wake of a late S'ly change late this evening but winds should moderate reasonably quickly. Open beaches should see occasional 2ft to maybe 2-3ft lumpy sets. 

At first, we we won’t see any new swell from the south on Saturday (the fetch trailing the change will be short and weak) but gale force W/SW winds exiting eastern Bass Strait overnight will kick up a small south swell from about lunchtime onwards, holding into Sunday morning (2ft+ sets south facing beaches).  

A stronger front rounding the Tasmanian corner tonight will kick up a better S’ly groundswell for Sunday, though it won’t arrive until the early/mid afternoon (earlier across the South Coast). South facing beaches should see 3ft+ sets very late in the day from this source (bigger in the Hunter), though most of Sunday will see a smaller mix of easing S’ly and E’ly swells in the 2ft+ range. 

More problematic will be local winds; early light but tending NE during the morning and freshening into the afternoon. So, don’t be surprised if conditions are not up to spec.

Sunday’s NE airstream will be related to a developing trough of Southern NSW, that will form a Tasman Low by Monday afternoon. Monday’s surf outlook is tricky thanks to the dicey wind outlook - we’ll see all directions of the compass between Ulladulla and Seal Rocks - but the Sydney region could pick up a period of NW winds through the middle of the day, and there’ll be a fun peaky NE swell in the 2-3ft range at exposed beaches originating from Sunday's winds. 

As the low develops, storm force S’ly winds are likely off Southern NSW overnight Monday and this will kick up a large local swell for Tuesday though there’ll be a lot of accompanying southerly wind. We could see anywhere up to 6-8ft at south facing beaches early morning but the low will quickly track eastwards so whatever pulse in size we see will likely peak over a very short time frame (this could even be overnight, too) and then ease steadily throughout Tuesday.

Of much greater interest to us is a series of strong fronts pushing north from polar latitudes around the same time, underneath Tasmania. Whilst not offering quite as much size potential as Tuesday’s swell from the Tasman Low, the groundswell quality will be much higher and we’ll probably see Wednesday and Thursday holding around 4-5ft at reliable south facing beaches, bigger near 6ft across the Hunter. 

The only fly in the ointment is a large high pressure system in the Bight that’ll probably drive southerly winds across the coast. But, swell won’t be in short supply. 

More on this in Monday’s update.