Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 6th September)

Best Days: Thurs: bigger, stronger S'ly swell. Fri PM/Sat/Sun: series of large overlapping S'ly swell, with mainly offshore winds. Mon: moderate, easing S'ly swell, offshore winds.

Recap: Tuesday offered tiny leftover surf early morning ahead of a small afternoon pulse of S’ly swell. This persisted into this morning and surf size has slowly increased throughout today as a fresh pulse of south swell has pushed up the coast. We're now swwing 3ft+ sets at Sydney's south swell magnets, and up to 4ft+ across the Hunter. 

Maroubra showing the building south swell a short time ago.. south swell magnets are bigger than this

This week (Sep 5th - 8th)

W/SW gales exiting eastern Bass Strait yesterday and today are setting up yet another strong round of south swell thats due to fill in throughout Thursday, building towards a peak in the afternoon. 

In fact, we’re looking at overlapping south swells for much of the next five days which creates a degree of uncertainty as to the precise size in the mornings and afternoons. This is because it’s hard to ascertain how the combined swells will perform in the near shore zone - we’re not just assessing the size potential of one swell train and its various phases (up, peak/plateau, down), but the combined phases of simultaneous swells.

Nevertheless, the broad outlook is up throughout Thursday, down temporarily Friday morning then up again strongly Friday afternoon, before trending up even more throughout the weekend. Conditions should remain clean with generally W/SW winds each day, though light to moderate sea breezes are possible in some regions.

Thursday afternoon’s peak should reach 3-5ft across Sydney’s south facing beaches (smaller at locations not open to the south) and the Hunter is likely to see occasional 6ft bombs. 

We’ll see a drop early Friday in the order of a couple of feet but the afternoon should rebuild to a similar size as per late Thursday, probably a fraction bigger right on dark - so 4-5ft+ south facing beaches in Sydney by the last few hours of the day and a solid 6-8ft across the Hunter coast. As always, expect smaller surf at beaches not directly open to the south.

This weekend (Sep 9th - 10th)

The models have moved the weekend’s outlook around since Monday’s notes were written, but the good news is that there’s been no downgrade - in fact we’re looking at even more strong, sizeable south swell for Southern NSW.

The most powerful front/low in this current progression is expected to now push across Tasmanian longitudes on Friday and will consequently set up a couple of large southerly swells for the weekend, originating from several sources - the fetch trailing the front and also the polar low further south. 

I’m still not confident on the timing specifics (model data now suggests Sunday morning will see the biggest and best waves, upwards of 8ft in Sydney) but either way we’re looking at 4-6ft surf at south swell magnets both days, with an embedded pulse significant higher than this sometime during the weekend (gut feel says late Saturday). 

As per usual it’ll be smaller at beaches with less southerly exposure, however reliable offshore bombies that focus direct south swells, as well as the majority of the Hunter Coast, are looking to see much bigger surf in the 8-10ft range at the height of the energy. 

Conditions should be generally clean with moderate offshore winds and sea breezes both days. 

Let’s take another pass on Friday with the benefit of the latest model guidance, to nail down the size and timing estimates. 

Next week (Sep 11th onwards)

Strong though easing S’ly swells are expected Monday morning onwards, early 4-5ft sets at south facing beaches (6ft+ in the Hunter), with clean conditions under a weak pressure pattern and thus light winds. We'l probably lose two or three feet throughout the day.

There’s nothing significant showing up on the long term radar at this stage beyond that, just a couple of minor S’ly swell events. 

See you Friday!