Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 2nd August)

Best Days: Thurs: good winds early, with plenty of leftover S/SE swell. Fri/Sat: clean with small E'ly residual swells. Tues/Wed: building S'ly swells, though with tricky winds mid-week. 

Recap: Looks like my Monday forecast was a significant undercall for yesterday and today (apologies!), due to the Tasman Low being a little stronger and closer to the coast than modelled (as detailed in the comments section of Monday’s Notes). South facing beaches saw a much earlier building trend with set waves around 4-6ft at south facing beaches and bigger bombs across the Hunter.  

This week (August 3rd - 4th)

Although yesterday and today came in bigger than expected, there’s no major change to the outlook for tomorrow.

Thursday’s swell is originating from a secondary fetch around the bottom flank of the low and the associated winds have largely come inline with expectations, which means we should see surf size around the 3-4ft mark at south facing beaches during the morning (slightly bigger across the Hunter, but smaller at beaches with less southerly exposure). Wave heights will probably ease into the afternoon.

As well as a slight easing trend throughout the day, winds will be mainly light and variable through the morning ahead of developing NE breeze from early-mid afternoon onwards. This will create a rapid deteriorating in conditions (away from protected northern corners) late in the day. 

These NE winds will become fresh and gusty for a period in offshore waters overnight Thursday, ahead of a north-west wind change in the early hours of Friday morning. We’ll see a peaky NE windswell fill in across the coast overnight however I’m a little concerned that it’ll probably rise and fall under the cover of darkness. At best, we may see some early 2ft sets across NE facing beaches around dawn on Friday but they’ll rapidly abate through the first few hours of the morning.

There may also be a few bigger sets from the lingering but otherwise easing S/SE swell around dawn, but this too will be rapidly subsiding through the morning period.

Otherwise, the only other new energy expected on Friday is a small pulse of E’ly swell in the afternoon, originating from a thin fetch of gales exiting western Cook Strait developing today. This should provide some intermittent 2ft sets into the mid-late afternoon. Fortunately, Friday’s conditions are looking clean, if a little blustery with fresh NW tending W/NW winds. 

This weekend (August 5th - 6th)

We have no new swell for the weekend. A series of strong fronts passing across the SE corner of the country have been aligned a little more NW, which is well and truly outside of our swell window.

As such, Saturday morning will offer the best of an ordinary bunch. We’re actually looking at a peak in mid-range E’ly swell from the fetch exiting western Cook Strait, but there won’t be much size on offer and it’ll be very inconsistent too. Exposed beaches should see some occasional 2ft+ sets but there’ll be long breaks between ‘em, and many beaches will dip out completely. However, there should be a fairly uniform spread of size between the Far South Coast and the Hunter region. 

An easing trend will probably develop into the afternoon, but it’ll be clean with mainly NW winds. 

Similar conditions are expected on Sunday though with even smaller, less consistent surf. Many beaches will probably become flat. So, make the most of Saturday’s beach breaks, especially in the morning. 

Next week (August 7th onwards)

The models have weakened the primary low linked to the weekend’s strong frontal systems, and instead of suggesting a large fetch generating strong southerly swell next week, we’re now looking at the possibility of several smaller, speedy fronts passing through our swell window.

This doesn’t completely write off the chance of surf next week but it does mean that the swell source will be more flukey and intermittent. 

Early indications are for a small increase late Monday and into Tuesday from the south (2-3ft+ south facing beaches), with a bigger push around Wednesday that should reach 3-4ft+ at south facing beaches. More on this in Friday’s update.