Large SE swell for the weekend, more S'ly swell next week
Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 21st July)
Best Days: Sat/Sun: large clean S/SE tending SE groundswell with light offshores. Mon: small clean leftovers. Late Tues/Wed: new S'ly groundswell.
Recap: Strong southerly swells both days with offshore winds. Gusty S/SW winds are now starting to develop across some locations.
This weekend (July 22nd - 23rd)
There's no change to the weekend's excellent forecast.
Yesterday’s and this morning’s satellite passes have confirmed wind strengths around the low in the south-eastern Tasman Sea with up to 50kts within the core fetch. We’ve got a large S/SE tending SE swell on the way for Saturday, and although it’ll ease through Sunday it’ll still be big to begin with.
Wave heights will trend upwards through Saturday, with most open south facing beaches looking at 6ft+ sets by the afternoon (may be a little undersized early morning).
However with confirmed core winds of 50kts (although not aimed perfectly in our direction), we are likely to see peak swell periods push higher than the 13.1 seconds currently modelled for lunchtime Saturday (as per our Northern Beaches forecast). My calculations are for somewhere in the 15+ second range, and this should push surf size a little higher at reliable offshore reefs and also across parts of the Hunter coast where we could see occasional 8-10ft bombs at times.
There will be a lot of water moving around, so sheltered southern corners will have smaller options for those surfers uncomfortable with these kinds of sizeable, powerful conditions.
Today’s developing S/SW airstream will ease rapidly overnight and tend light to moderate W’ly for the early session on Saturday and hold into the early afternoon, tweaking W/NW at the same time. There’s a chance for light N/NW winds to develop mid-late afternoon but there won’t be much strength in it.
On Sunday we’ll see a steady easing trend as the swell direction veers from the S/SE to the SE. Early sets are likely to be around 4-6ft at exposed beaches (again, bigger across the Hunter and at offshore bombies thanks to the long though abating swell periods), and it’ll probably be down to 3-4ft by the late afternoon. Expect smaller surf inside sheltered southern corners.
As for conditions, Sunday is looking to be picture perfect with light to moderate W/NW winds all day.
I hope you’ve booked in some flexi time!
Next week (July 24th onwards)
No changes to the outlook for next week either, as per Wednesday’s notes.
We’ll see lingering though easing SE swell early Monday (2ft+), and continuing offshore winds. A small south swell is due into the afternoon from a strong but poorly aligned front exiting eastern Bass Strait overnight Sunday. I’m a little less keen on this now so will peg size at an inconsistent 2ft+ across south facing beaches late Monday and early Tuesday (slightly bigger in the Hunter). It'll be very small away from open south facing beaches though, this is a low confidence pulse so don't work around it.
Of much more interest is a broad, powerful polar low tracking under Tasmania around Sunday that’s expected to spin off a series of trailing fronts through the rest of the week. These systems will supply varying degrees of long period south swell from Tuesday afternoon thru’ Friday.
At the moment, very late Tuesday afternoon and early Wednesday are expected to see the best waves from this pattern, with a rapidly building S’ly groundswell that should provide 3-5ft sets at south facing beaches (bigger in the Hunter) but much smaller elsewhere due to the steep swell direction. However, I'm not 100% on the arrival time late Tuesday afternoon right now and will review in Monday's notes (if you have to book something in, aim for early Wednesday).
Winds should remain W’ly through this period though there’s a risk of a developing S/SW flow as the associated front clips the coast (more likely later Wednesday and possibly Thursday).
The second half of next week will see persistent S’ly swells - more short to mid range than long range however - easing from 3-4ft Thursday to 2-3ft Friday. Were likely to see a half day or so of average conditions with the passage of this front but Friday’s on track for a return to westerlies and thus clean conditions.
Have a great weekend, see you Monday!
Comments
Hi Ben, long way out but how is next weekend looking? Heading up your way from vicco for a week of work and have a window for a weekend of waves or head to Perisher. WAMS are looking pretty uninspiring
Crikey, can't we get through this weekend's swell first?
Haha I need to pack! I'll go prepared for both, options :)
Cant wait! Heading up Crowdy bay way - should be solid!
Looks like the new swell is starting to fill in. Some (smaller, but still high quality) decent barrels at the Island right now.
Stacked (and this bloke is deep!).
Can you tell if there is a contest at the point?
Strong lines across the Manly stretch now.
9/10 says perfection? How do you come to this conclusion? Is it just because its a spectacle. Eastern beaches unridable(unless you want coogee 2ftcloseout) northern beaches full on closeout.
Please help me understand
Offshore winds, sunny skies, strong sizeable groundswell. Not sure what's missing for this to be rated highly. Plenty of options on the Northern Beaches to surf, less so on the Eastern Beaches (hence the difference in ratings).
Absolutely smoking on my coast this morning. Only a few places ridable but it's far and away the best morning in months.
There'll be some hell stories coming back from a certain reef, though it'll be as crowded as a Tokyo intersection.
Quite obviously if 6ft surf with off shore winds under blue sky's isn't ur thing pick another hobby
Huge at Maroubra, no way for the juniors comp to go out there, or any comp really. Half a dozen blokes taking it on between south and middle. Triple overhead on some waves I saw riders on.
Many are makeable, saw a few good rides, but you have to be ready for being taken out on the bigger bombs. So much water! Hard to tell just how big those outside bombs are.
Some north end monsters were opening up huge barrels when the backwash/sidewash hit them. Looked like the opening credits to Hawaii Five-0. Book em, Dano.
Yeah I don't really see a 9/10?
The manly pics look like all the other beaches. Closeouts.
Guess the points and reefs are better, but 9/10?
If this ain't a 9/10, then I don't know what is. Pic from Chris Bykx (author of our fantastic "Coastal Creationism" series).
Really big at Maroubra.
How's this bomb at the Patch!
Well, yes , that was kind of my point. The bower pic is great, but the Manly and Maroubra
pics are closeouts
And.. there's a lot more to the Northern Beaches than Manly.
How would you rate today's surf conditions beween Manly and Palmy, relative to the norm?
Relative to the norm I'd say it's a great spectacle, but not surfable at most beaches?
I guess I'm looking at the point of view of how many people were surfing today compared to say a 4-5ft day? Maybe a NE swell which seems to work at more places.
Haven't seen anyone out at a lot of spots all day, which I think is shown in the other pics you've posted. I guess it's difficult to lump the whole northern beaches under one rating?
But, yes there would be some amazing waves at certain spots.
Cheers brother!
Just off the camera. Reverse style j-bay. Hope you guys scored, cuz I did :)
Good shit Jack. Wondered how that was gonna go today. Early tide wasn't friendly and may have put a few people off it.
Double overhead and half south of Newy this morning. I'd post a pic or 2 but I don't seem to be able to.( I thought I could just copy the jpg and paste in comments??)
Is tomorrow still shaping up at 4-6 feet on south exposed beaches around Newy?
Here are some guidelines to upload photos: https://www.swellnet.com/forums/wax/96181
Yeah tomorrow will still be solid early but easing during the day.
Thankyou got it :) From this morning at Crabs Creek
G'Day mate, are you cool if I include these two shots in a swell pictorial to be posted late today/tomorrow?
I don't intend to name the wave but I'd like to include a credit, so if you're comfortable with it please email me you name on: stuart@swellnet.com
Cheers,
Stu
PS: Hope you got a few yourself.
Yea for sure. Email sent.
Cheers,
Trev.
From early this morning, Sunday, uncrowded crankers at a secret spot.
Whoa! Shark Island a short time ago.
But the reality is more like...
Plenty o' tasty bowls though.
Southerly component in the swell direction very apparent at Queensie.
But some very nice options if you're in the right place at the right time.
Yes the reality is right, solid closeouts. Who knows tomorrow might be a ten with offshore winds, clear skies and few shoulders instead of the slam. Good luck to all
Reckon I saw a few 10/10 waves this arvo.
Late session was fucken gold class.
S. Point stu?
How can you kooks complain about the 9/10 rating? The forecaster can't produce banks on every beachbreak. It was pumping ALL day!!!!! I paddled out a Bombie and got two ten foot bombs in 2 hours. It wasn't perfect but we don't live at desert Point. Don't be whinging knob-heads with no idea and all the gear. You probably boast to your girlfriends that you are surfers. .
Wow, that's a big assumption about someone from a comment on a website
I can smell a kook via binary coding
Go hard billie
sorry, the content here is great. Just the comments frustrate me sometimes. I'll edit slightly
All good. I wasn't haven't a go...
Yeah, but it didn't feel good. I'm not an evil person.
Triple overhead with big caves on the desert storm today, 9/10 for sure, Illawarra reefs and points were fantastic, waited till midday low tide hit it then
Maroubra wasn't just closeouts, but you had to be good on position to get them though, there were plenty of mainly lefts of solid dimensions. No different to any beach break, you don't get mechanical perfection, that's one of the charms.
Watching the huge sets hit the northern headland at sunset, standing 100 feet or so above them and yet so close, an awe inspiring experience. People were getting soaked but just enjoying it all the same, more pics than you can poke a stick at, and spray was jumping another 20 to 30 feet above the cliffs at times. Glorious.
Around the grounds this morning.
Solid freight trains in Newy.
Still pretty chunky across the Manly stretch though ain't as consistent or strong (or big) as yesterday arvo.
Smaller at Maroubra but more manageable with some decent peaks.
Perfection at Shark Island...
... until you're caught inside!
Just capping on the bombie at Queensie:
But then looking like this on the inside:
Hey guys - please dont get defensive as this is just constructive criticism. The high ratings that are thrown out, often 7/10, are laughed at and used as jokes by the locals in the line ups. Today's 9/10 was next level hype, kinda like Morias getting a 9.4 in the final at jbay :D. Maybe dont write the report the night before and do a check before going big.
So, what would have been an appropriate rating for yesterday? Or today?
BTW, our surf reports are never written the night before.
It's a bizarre argument being mounted about surf ratings. I don't use them, don't need too, and fail to see why anyone would consider an arbitrary number the 'clincher' for whether they will drive down to the beach or not.
For example, yesterday's swell was about as conspicuous as could be possible. Everyone knew the swell was coming and everyone knew the wind was going to be good, all you're really looking for is confirmation it's arrived. In the face of that, bickering over a number is laughably stupid.
I drove the Northern Beaches twice yesterday and found excellent waves for the morning and the late sessions. It took some driving but this it was a south swell so what do people expect??? If you only checked your own beach and missed out then it's your own fault, and if you're guided by a number on a day like yesterday (and even today) then you should reconsider how you spend your weekends becaue you're wasting your time surfing.
Lastly, my FB feed is full of people scoring "9/10" waves from the Central Coast to the Illawara, including a couple of reefs on the northern beaches. If ever there's been a non-argument, this is it.
Exactly, they are a guide only. Know your local zone, know the expected conditions, know your limitations.
Well I'll give that comment a 10/10
10 / 10 is what im hearing from the Editors performance yesterday
A 45 ish gent charging the biggest sets ...on a Red board...Channel bottom single fin Stuart ?
I'm sitting here a dribbling mess from what went on this weekend but that comment has floored me. ha ha ha...you're telepathic. I got no Insta or FB but the Udo Wireless is in full effect - connections to every beach carpark.
And that board has been a revelation. Gonna get Phil to shape a 6'5" with the same planshape and channels when I put some coin together.
Overgunned on the 7'0?
Didn't strictly need it but I'm really enjoying the feel of the big single.
What size fin were you using in this Red Rocket Stu ?.....Glen Caseys got a whopper in his Phil Meyers C bottom .
Reckon there will be anything tomorrow morning
Manly this arvo, got a few keepers. Up from the morn pen, first time surfing in NSW. Couple observations - so crowded and so warm!
THis swell delivered big big time.
I observe a happy Evosurfer.